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Sort by: Title Principal Investigator (s) Task Force Year Initially Funded
Year Initially Funded: 2016
Task Force:
S2S Prediction Task Force
Final Report:

Variability of Rossby Wave Breaking and its Impacts on the Large-scale Circulation and Extreme Weathers: Implications for S2S Prediction and Predictability

View abstract
"Rossby wave breaking (RWB) is characterized by large-scale, irreversible overturning of potential vorticity (PV) on isentropic surfaces. The eddy-mean interaction involved in RWB is an important process for the maintenance and variability of the midlatitude jet, and mixing associated with RWB plays an important role in moisture and momentum transport between the tropics and extratropics. In particular, extratropical PV intrusion modulates the moisture distribution in the subtropical dry zone, which affects the infrared energy loss and is an important factor in the global energy budget.

RWB is also closely related to extreme weathers, such as blocking and atmospheric rivers. Our recent study revealed a strong relationship between RWB and Atlantic tropical cyclones (TC). Anomalously frequent RWB enhances the equatorward intrusion of cold, dry extratropical air and leads to a significant reduction in precipitable water over the tropical/subtropical Atlantic and an increase in vertical wind shear, both hindering TC formation and intensification. The correlation of Atlantic hurricane counts with a basinwide RWB frequency index is comparable to the correlation with the Atlantic Main Development Region SST, and stronger than the correlation with the ENSO.

In this project, we propose to i) examine the variability and impacts of RWB on the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales using reanalysis and observational data; ii) assess the representation of RWB in global prediction systems and investigate model deficiencies using the WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP S2S prediction project database; and iii) investigate the implications of the findings for the S2S prediction and predictability, especially for the prediction and predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Studies on S2S prediction have primarily focused on tropical forcing and processes (such as the MJO and tropical SST) in the past. This project complements those efforts through its unique perspective in emphasizing the extratropical impacts on tropical circulation and extreme weathers and stressing the link between midlatitude transient eddies and the S2S prediction and predictability. The ultimate goal of the project is to improve the prediction skill of global models on the S2S time scales, and it is well aligned with the focus of the NOAA MAPP Competition 2 to “improve the understanding of predictability” and “advance the prediction of phenomena occurring on S2S time scales”. It is also highly relevant to the NOAA’s long-term climate goal to improve the scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts. This project team consists of scientists from research institutes and operational centers. Their combined expertise in atmospheric dynamics, global modeling, and operational forecasting together forms the particular strength of this project, and will also facilitate transition from research to operations and help to bridge the gap between numerical weather forecasting and short-term climate prediction."

Principal Investigator (s): Zhuo Wang (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Co-PI (s): Melinda Peng (NRL), Stan Benjamin (NOAA/ESRL)
Year Initially Funded: 2012
Task Force:
Climate Prediction Task Force
Final Report:

Variability and Predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool and Its Impacts on Extreme Events in North America

View abstract

Our current/previous NOAA/CPO-funded research has pointed out the importance of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) for summer climate and extreme events in the Western Hemisphere. AWP variability occurs on seasonal, interannual, multidecadal, and secular (global warming) timescales, with large AWPs being almost three times larger than small ones. The effect of the AWP is to weaken the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and strengthen the summer continental low over the North American monsoon region. A large AWP also weakens the southerly Great Plains low-level jet, which results in reduced northward moisture transport from the AWP to the central U. S. and thus decreases the summer rainfall over the central United States. A large AWP increases the number of Atlantic hurricanes by reducing vertical wind shear and increasing the moist static instability of the troposphere, and influences the hurricane steering flow changes that become unfavorable for hurricanes to make landfall in the United States. Our research also suggests that the AWP serves as a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and climate and hurricane activity. Despite its importance, almost of all stateof-the-art coupled models exhibit serious biases in the AWP region, which limit the seasonal prediction of AWP-related climate and extreme events.

We propose to continue our investigation of the AWP using fully coupled climate models. Two specific areas of proposed work are (1) diagnosing the CMIP5 outputs to assess model biases near the AWP region and to understand their skill in simulating the mechanisms and climate impacts of AWP variability, and (2) performing coupled model experiments using CESM1 (also called CCSM4) and analyzing the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecasts to assess and improve predictability of the AWP and its impacts on climate and extreme events such as hurricanes, flood and drought in North America. The diagnostic analyses will mainly focus on variability of the AWP, and its impacts on the NASH, the Caribbean low level jet and its moisture transport, and the Great Plains low-level jet and its moisture transport. Other areas of the focus in the diagnostic analyses include the relationships of rainfall in the U.S. with the AWP, the external influences (such as ENSO, the AMO, and the NAO) versus local ocean-atmosphere processes on AWP variability, and the relationships among environmental factors contributing to hurricane activity. We will perform CESM1 model simulations with and without realistic initialization of the AWP to explore the impact of AWP initialization on seasonal forecasts. We will also examine the influences of model resolution and deep convective parameterizations in CESM1 on AWP SST and rainfall biases. One of the tasks is to analyze the CFSv2 reforecasts to explore its skill for seasonal predication of the AWP and AWP-related climate and extreme events. The CESM1 experiments and the analysis of CFSv2 reforecasts are designed to identify the sources that contribute to the model biases, thus provide a basis for improving model simulations and predictions. In collaboration with scientists at NOAA/CPC, we will attempt to transition research results to operations at NOAA/CPC. The proposed work directly contributes to all of four topics listed in the NOAA/CPO MAPP FY12 Priority Area 3 of "modeling of IAS climate processes associated with extremes over North America". It is hoped that over a longer time frame, this work will result in the regional implementation of data- and model-based outlooks for flood/drought in the United States, hurricanes and climate variability, when successfully combined with land-based models.


Principal Investigator (s): Wang, Chunzai (NOAA/AMOL)

Co-PI (s): Lee, S.-K. (NOAA/AMOL); Enfield, D. (NOAA/AMOL)
Year Initially Funded: 2011
Task Force:
Final Report:

Using Historical Surface Data to Verify the Twentieth Century Reanalysis for Oceanographic Applications

View abstract

The Twentieth Century (20CRv.2) Reanalysis Project of Compo et al. (2010) more than doubles the time span covered by atmospheric reanalyses, and in addition uses an assimilation methodology that provides information about the accuracy of the reanalysis.

Thus the 20CRv.2 potentially offers wonderful advantages for use in multi-decadal ocean circulation and climate studies. This proposal will help fulfill that promise by supporting exploration of the surface winds from the 20CRv.2 in two stages. The first stage will involve comparison of the 20CRv.2 and other multi-decadal reanalyses to wind observations such as those contained in ICOADS (which were not used in the 20CRv.2 assimilation) to estimate accuracy various space and timescales and to detect the presence of time-dependent biases. The second stage will involve examination of output from a simulation of an ocean general circulation model driven by reanalysis winds in comparison with the historical hydrographic record.


Principal Investigator (s): Carton, James (University of Maryland)

Co-PI (s): Grodsky, Semyon (University of Maryland)
Year Initially Funded: 2016
Task Force:
Final Report:

Upgrading the CPC operational ocean monitoring to an eddy-permitting global ocean analysis using the Hybrid Global Ocean Data Assimilation System as a replacement for GODAS

View abstract

Principal Investigator (s): Steve Penny (University of Maryland)

Co-PI (s): Jim Carton (UMD), Yan Xue (NOAA/CPC), David Behringer (NOAA/EMC), Laury Miller (NOAA/EMC)
Year Initially Funded: 2016
Task Force:
S2S Prediction Task Force
Final Report:

Understanding the Sources of Subseasonal Predictability of Extratropical Cyclone Activity and Improving Their Representation in Forecast Systems

View abstract
"Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high impact and extreme weather conditions over the mid-latitudes, including heavy precipitation, high winds, coastal storm surges, and extreme cold events. On the other hand, lack of extratropical cyclone activity (ECA) in summer is linked to extreme heat. Hence skillful predictions of future cyclone activity will provide policy makers, emergency management, and stakeholders advanced warnings to prepare for mitigation measures. Unfortunately at present the National Weather Service does not provide any such forecast products in the subseasonal to seasonal time range.

The goal of this project is to improve the subseasonal prediction of ECA and its associated weather extremes. It has three specific objectives: i) Improve the understanding of the physical drivers that give rise to ECA predictability; ii) Improve the prediction of ECA and its drivers by focusing on the forecasting system set-up and model convection parameterizations; iii) Improve the forecasting of weather extremes associated with ECA variability. To achieve these objectives, the following tasks will be conducted: 1) Subseasonal prediction of ECA derived from multi-model ensemble hindcasts will be evaluated, and diagnostic and mechanistic model experiments will be conducted, to test the following hypothesis on ECA predictability: ECA predictability depends on the specific combinations of different drivers, such as the combination of the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and ENSO; 2) The choices of ensemble members, improved convection parameterizations that control diabatic heating and moisture sink profiles, as well as model resolutions will be investigated to improve the set-up of the forecasting system; 3) The impact of model biases and improvements in ECA prediction on the prediction of weather extremes will be quantified.

This project seeks to advance the subseasonal prediction of ECA and its associated weather extremes, thus contributing to NOAA’s goals to develop the capability to bridge weather and seasonal predictions, and to extend the lead times at which extreme events are skillfully predicted, thereby allowing emergency managers, water resource managers, and other stakeholders more time to prepare, hence this project is highly relevant to NOAA’s long term goals. This project seeks to understand the physical basis behind the subseasonal predictability of ECA, explore how the set-up of the prediction system and model convection parameterization impact system skill in predicting ECA and its drivers, and assess ECA predictability in the context of its impacts on weather extremes, thus this project is highly relevant to this competition."

Principal Investigator (s): Edmund Kar-Man Chang (Stony Brook University)

Co-PI (s): Minghua Zhang (Stony Brook University), Hyemi Kim (Stony Brook University), Wanqiu Wang (NOAA/CPC)
Year Initially Funded: 2014
Task Force:
Drought Task Force
Final Report:

Understanding the Role of Land-Atmospheric Coupling in Drought Forecast Skill for the 2011 and 2012 US Droughts

View abstract
The overall goals of the proposed project is to understand land-atmospheric coupling processes in CFSv2 and their role in the predictability of drought development, intensification and termination, and to perform attribution and modeling studies for the improvement of drought predictions.

Background. In 2011 and 2012, the central US suffered intense drought. While the societal impact of these extreme events can be reduced through planning and preparation, the predictive skill of seasonal forecasts from models such as NCEP’s CFSv2 is low, which limits their practical use. This is particularly true during the North American summer, when the need for predictions is the greatest.

Recent research by PI Wood’s group has resulted in a better understanding of the role that land- atmosphere interactions play in drought predictability in seasonal forecast models. This work developed the Coupling Drought Index (CDI) to assess the representation of land-atmosphere feedbacks in forecasts. The research has shown that the hindcast climatological CDI in CFSv2 quickly deviates from the reanalysis-based CDI into a wetter state and demonstrated that land-atmospheric coupling breaks down in CFSv2 during drought conditions (dry coupling) leading to the weakening and premature termination of the drought conditions. The loss of seasonal forecast drought skill is attributed to the failure of CFSv2 to hold drought conditions, especially in the major droughts of 2011 and 2012.

Preliminary analyses indicate that increased (anomalous) terrestrial evapotranspiration in CFSv2 is leading to its inability to hold drought conditions. One hypothesis is that deep soil water is accessed in the Noah land model and evaporated to control a warm bias while an alternative hypothesis is that the increase in evapotranspiration is due to a lack of dynamic vegetation in the model, which allows for continued transpiration during a drought event (due to the use of a vegetation phenology based on climatology)

Summary of Proposed Work: To address the goal of the proposed project, a combination of historical (realtime) and prescribed CFSv2 forecasts will be used to compare with verification data (CFSR/CDAS) to analyze the local feedback mechanism, the large scale circulation and their interactions in the development, intensification and termination of the 2011 and 2012 droughts in North America. Specifically,
1. An analysis of the CFSv2 forecasts (leads out to September) made from April through June for each event. The CFSv2 ensemble forecast data will be used to compute time series of the coupling states and CDI following the approach of Roundy et al., 2013a, b). The CFSv2 skill will be compared to a benchmark based on a CDI-based Statistical Drought Forecast Model.
2. Recycling analysis to track the moisture sources of CFSv2 anomalous precipitation, to assess if the moisture is from local sources (anomalous ET in CFSv2) or from large scale advection.
3. CFSv2 ensemble reforecast experiments for the droughts of 2011 and 2012 to examine the role of vegetation parameterization in CFSv2 (Noah). The experiments will use real-time vegetation fraction observations and an advanced Noah land model with Multiple Parameterization (Noah-MP) that includes both fixed and dynamic vegetation options.

Relevance to the Program. The research directly addresses the needs identified in the call: “Proposals (that) will examine processes controlling drought development, intensification, and termination with a focus on predictability. Specifically, (work that) consider mechanistic studies involving model simulations and predictions to examine processes such as the role of land surface conditions, … and atmospheric feedbacks..”. The significance of the research is that the work will help understand the processes that lead to premature termination of drought in CFSv2 forecasts and its low forecast skill. Based on the anticipated results, the project can identify potential CFS model improvements.

Principal Investigator (s): Wood, Eric (Princeton University)

Co-PI (s): Michael Ek (NOAA/EMC)
Year Initially Funded: 2011
Task Force:
CMIP5 Task Force
Final Report:

Understanding the Emerging Central-Pacific ENSO and Its Impacts on North American Climate

View abstract

It is being increasingly recognized that there are two distinct types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): an Eastern-Pacific (EP) type that has its sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies centered near the South America coast and a Central-Pacific (CP) type that has its SST anomalies centered near the international dateline. IPCC AR4 simulations project that the CP type may become the prevailing type of ENSO in a future warmer world, which is consistent with the fact that CP ENSO events have occurred more frequently in the past three decades than in earlier decades. There is a need to better prepare for the emergence of this mode of tropical climate variability, and to revise existing modeling and prediction strategies developed primarily with the conventional EP type of ENSO in mind. One source of uncertainty in the prediction and projection of North American climate may have to do with whether or not modern climate models can produce both types of ENSO, simulate the alternation between them, and capture their different impacts. This project proposes data analyses and model experiments to better understand the evolution of the CP ENSO and its regional impacts on the Pacific-North America sector and to identify the key atmospheric and oceanic processes for differing the impacts of the CP and EP ENSO’s on North American climate.

Specifically, this project will make use of the existing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations and the upcoming CMIP5 simulations to understand the relative importance of the extratropical forcing and tropical coupling in controlling the evolution of the CP ENSO and to identify the concurrent and extended impacts of CP and EP ENSOs on North American Climate. The different impacts produced by the EP and CP ENSOs will be translated into uncertainties in the prediction and projection of the North American climate variability and will be assessed. Partial-coupling and forced experiments will then be conducted to further understand how the ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific-North American sector respond to CP and EP ENSO forcing, how the responses are projected onto the Pacific-North American (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) modes of variability, and how they are manifested as variations in the Aleutian Low, Subtropical High, and tropospheric jestreams. Special attention will be given to understanding the ENSO-induced SST anomalies in the North Pacific, which are hypothesized to extend ENSO’s influence on North America after the demise of the ENSO events. The possibility of using statistical models, such as the Markov model, to perform CP ENSO predictions using both extratropical and tropical information will also be explored.

This project is expected to quantify the sensitivity of North American climate to the alternation of the ENSO type and to make suggestions on how it can be better captured in modern climate models by laying out the specific atmospheric, oceanic, and coupled processes that establish the sensitivity. New metrics that gauge not only tropical but also extratropical atmospheric and ocean fields will also be developed to help further improve model simulations of the two types of ENSO. These efforts are relevant to (a) “support the development of next-generation global climate models” and (b) “evaluate uncertainties in regional-scale climate predictions and projections”, both of which are priority areas specified by the FY2011 MAPP program for the research theme of Advance in Regional-Scale Climate Predictions and Projections.

Principal Investigator (s): Yu, Jin-Yi (UC Irvine)

Co-PI (s):
Year Initially Funded: 2014
Task Force:
Drought Task Force
Final Report:

Understanding predictability of Long Lived North American Drought Regimes

View abstract
A defining feature of U.S. drought variability is its regime-like behavior. The 1930s, 1950s, and the 2000s stand out as national-scale dry epochs, while the 1980’s and 1990’s were comparatively wet periods. The dry epochs are not merely the result of a single, especially severe drought event, but are typically plagued by a series of recurring droughts. These sometimes strike the same portion of the nation year-over-year (e.g., southern Plains in the 1950s), while at other times, drought tends to progress and appears to spread across the contiguous U.S. over an extended period (e.g. in the 2000s). Concerns that a new regime of sustained and severe drought may now be taking hold over the U.S. grain belt, harkening perhaps to the 1930s, has been triggered by the recent drought events in the Great Plains that began in 2011 over southern portions and expanded to central portions in 2012.

This proposed project seeks to understand why the contiguous U.S. experiences distinct decadal-scale modulations in drought. While individual seasonal drought events have been extensively studied, and for which considerable progress is being made to improve their predictability, less is known about the regime-like behavior. This project seeks to understand if drought regimes are a consequence of slowly evolving forcings of climate, and whether those forcings and their accompanying impacts possess predictability. In particular, are drought regimes due principally to low frequency oceanic forcings (e.g. Atlantic and Pacific decadal-like ocean variations), or are they mainly a statistical residual (or rectified response) of higher frequency ocean fluctuations linked to El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Can prolonged dry periods arise from atmosphere-land coupled variability alone without ocean forcing, and if so what are the implications for predictability? In this sense, the project seeks to understand whether the various US drought epochs of the last century have had common causes. Further, given the recent proliferation of severe U.S. drought during a period in which national temperatures were their warmest on record, the question arises if the role of climate change is now exerting an appreciable effect on sustained drought risks.

The project proposes mechanistic studies using model simulations and initialized decadal predictions to understand the causes for, and predictability of, US drought regimes. The focus is on long-term factors, such as decadal ocean variability and anthropogenically-driven trends, though cognizant of possible rectification resulting from seasonal SST variations. In parallel with climate simulations that will explore the physical processes causing decadal dry and wet epochs, a set of decadal predictions will assess existing capabilities to anticipate such epochs. Climate simulations spanning the last century will be used to understand how climate change forcing has acted to influence the risks of sustained droughts.

The goals of the proposal are closely aligned with the CPO/MAPP FY14 announcement of opportunity research foci of “Research to Advance Understanding, Monitoring, and Prediction of Drought - Understanding Predictability of Past Droughts over North America.” More specifically to “...consider mechanistic studies involving model simulations and predictions to examine processes such as the role of land surface conditions, oceanic conditions, and atmospheric feedbacks; long-term factors, such as decadal variability or anthropogenically3 driven trends versus immediate meteorological causes.” Proposal objectives also align closely with the NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP) objectives to (a) “Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts”, and (b) “Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions.”

Principal Investigator (s): Kumar, Arun (NOAA/CPC)

Co-PI (s): Martin Hoerling (NOAA/ESRL), Siegfried Schubert (NASA/GSFC)
Year Initially Funded: 2012
Task Force:
Climate Prediction Task Force
Final Report:

Understanding climate variations in the Intra-Americas Seas and their influence on climate extremes using global high-resolution coupled models

View abstract

We propose to use a hierarchy of GFDL high-resolution climate models to improve our understanding of the climate of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico ("Intra-Americas Seas", or "IAS"), including its influence on climate-scale variations and changes in Atlantic hurricane activity and North American drought. Because of the complex, mutli-scale oceanographic, atmospheric and coupled air-sea phenomena that characterize the IAS region, we will focus on both atmospheric and oceanic climate, and their interactions. We will explore the sensitivity of the simulation of the mean climate and climate variations in the IAS to changes in resolution and parameterization in the context of the coupled GFDL high-resolution models. The role of remote influences on climate in the IAS will be explored, assessing oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections by performing "data override" and "partial coupling" experiments with the climate models. Analogous perturbations to the coupled model will be used to explore the influence of the IAS on remote climate through atmospheric and oceanic processes. We will focus particularly on the influence of the IAS on North Atlantic hurricanes and on drought over North America. Predictability of the climate variations and teleconnections from the IAS will be explored using initialized prediction experiments using the GFDL high-resolution modeling system.

The principal hypotheses to be tested are i) increased resolution and high-order numerics in global coupled climate models improve simulation of mean climate and variations of the Intra-Americas Seas, ii) remote, large-scale factors (e.g., ENSO and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) drive variations and changes in the IAS through atmospheric and oceanic bridges, iii) changes in oceanic circulation and atmospheric convection in the IAS have a detectable influence on remote oceanic and atmospheric conditions, iv) modeled climate variations in the IAS modulate North American drought and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, v) the improved representation of drivers of IAS variability (e.g., ENSO and AMM) and the mean climate of the IAS in higher resolution models leads to enhanced predictive capacity for regional climate due from initialization and response to radiative forcing. The proposed work should improve our understanding and ability to model a key area of the global climate system, and the model simulations performed in this study and analysis of them will be beneficial to the high-resolution climate model development.

Relevance to NOAA's long-term goal and to the competition: This work will contribute to NOAA's long-term goal of climate adaptation and mitigation through improving our ability to model, predict and understand climate extremes over North America. The IAS is a principal moisture source for rainfall over much of the southeastern and central US, provides a warm water energy source to tropical cyclones and is key in the development of tornadic activity over the US. Therefore improved understanding, modeling and prediction of this key region is necessary to understanding likely changes in droughts, landfalling tropical cyclones and tornadic activity over the US, and help inform adaptation strategies. Though the IAS is influential to climate and extremes, "state-of-the-art global models have very large mean bias and erroneous variability over the [IAS] region," according to the IAS Climate Processes (IASCliP) Modeling Working Group (Misra et al. 2010). This proposal seeks to use higher resolution models to help remedy this important limitation to our current modeling capability.

Principal Investigator (s): Vecchi, Gabriel (NOAA/GFDL)

Co-PI (s): Delworth, Thomas (NOAA/GFDL); Rosati, Anthony (NOAA/GFDL)
Year Initially Funded: 2014
Task Force:
Drought Task Force
Final Report:

Understanding changes in the regional variability of U.S. Drought

View abstract
North American drought is among the costliest extreme climatic events, with impacts to the U.S economy of several billion dollars per year. Droughts are typically amplified during the warm season and can rapidly intensify, as the flash drought of 2012 can attest. Some recent studies suggest that during meteorological summer (JJA) the interannual variability of North American precipitation has been increasing over the last 6 decades. However, upon closer examination it is evident that trends in this variability are more nuanced than previously thought. During spring (AMJ) both the Great Plains and Southeast show an increasing trend in interannual variability of precipitation over 1950-2010, however, during summer (JAS) the changes in variability exhibit a more decadal-like appearance. These regional precipitation variations during the spring and summer are acutely sensitive to North American low-level jet (NALLJ) variability. This dynamical feature of the atmosphere acts as a scale transfer mechanism between the large-scale forcing and regional climate variability.

The main goals of this proposal are to (1) Advance the understanding of the physical mechanisms linking changes in NALLJ fluctuations and regional precipitation variability, (2) Determine the ability of the current generation of global climate models to simulate and predict NALLJ variability and its related precipitation impacts, (3) Examine the roles of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change to recent changes in regional precipitation and NALLJ variability. These goals will be achieved by completing the following tasks: (task-1) expand the observational analysis of NALLJ variability and regional warm season precipitation variations to include the entire 20th century; (task-2) diagnose the role of global SST variability on the NALLJ modes and precipitation in observations and multi-model AMIP simulations; (task-3) examine the predictability of NALLJ variability modes in the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) reforecasts; (task-4) Develop an experimental NALLJ prediction system; (task 5) evaluate the role of GHG increases on changes to regional precipitation variability using several thousand seasonal realizations provided by the NMME effort.

The proposed work contributes directly to a high priority topic for the NOAA FY 2014 MAPP funding Priority Area-1, Research to Advance Understanding, Monitoring, and Prediction of Drought: (i) “Understanding predictability of past droughts over North America”. This work will be conducted under the auspices of the NCEP Climate Prediction Center and will enable NOAA to achieve the major objectives of MAPP especially, “improving methodologies for global to regional-scale analysis, predictions, and projections” and “developing integrated assessment and prediction capabilities relevant to decision makers based on climate analyses, predictions, and projections.” The work is also highly relevant to NOAA’s goals as expressed in the NOAA Next generation Strategic Plan, specifically, Weather Ready Nation: Society is prepared for and responds to weather-related events, and Climate Adaptation and Mitigation: An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts.

Principal Investigator (s): Weaver, Scott (NOAA/CPC)

Co-PI (s): N/A
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The Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program's mission is to enhance the Nation's capability to understand and predict natural variability and changes in Earth's climate system. The MAPP Program supports development of advanced climate modeling technologies to improve simulation of climate variability, prediction of future climate variations from weeks to decades, and projection of long-term future climate conditions. To achieve its mission, the MAPP Program supports research focused on the coupling, integration, and application of Earth system models and analyses across NOAA, among partner agencies, and with the external research community.

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