Real-time predictions


The NMME produces predictions out to seven months on the National Weather Service (NWS) operational schedule. These predictions are relied upon by NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasters to generate a variety of products, including U.S. temperature and precipitation anomaly outlooks, the Drought Monitor, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts.

The NMME system has provided routine real-time seasonal forecasts since August 2011 that adheres to the NCEP/CPC operational launch schedule.

CPC prediction graphics:
Current NMME-based predictions of near-surface air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and precipitation rates:

Questions about these prediction graphics should be addressed to Qin Zhang or Emily Becker.  

COLA ENSO plume graphics:
A new visualization of archived and real-time NMME ENSO forecasts developed by COLA
Brief description

The colored lines represent the current ensemble mean ENSO forecasts for each individual model system in the NMME. The histograms (sets of colored rectangles) convey the forecast probabilities of different ENSO conditions based on the entire multi-model system.


→ Latest ENSO Forecast

 
 

→ Archive of COLA's Plume Diagrams


Questions about these prediction graphics should be addressed to Jennifer Adams


Archive of CPC NMME forecast graphics
The NMME prediction graphics made in real time during 2011-present are archived by CPC and available via their website (September 2011–present).


MAPP

ABOUT OUR ORGANIZATION

Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2011, the United States experienced a record high number (14) of climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 670 lives, caused more than 6,000 injuries, and cost $55 billion in damages. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.

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