Spring ENSO Variations and North Atlantic SSTs Could Help Long-Range Prediction of U.S. Tornado Outbreaks 11 April 2016

Spring ENSO Variations and North Atlantic SSTs Could Help Long-Range Prediction of U.S. Tornado Outbreaks

In a recent paper published in Environmental Research Letters, scientists with NOAA and the University of Miami have identified how patterns in the spring phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), coupled with variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, could help predict U.S. regional tornado outbreaks. 

Will climate change increase summertime temperature variability and heat waves by 2100? A new CPO-funded study has the answer 3 March 2016

Will climate change increase summertime temperature variability and heat waves by 2100? A new CPO-funded study has the answer

A new study by Haiyan Teng (National Center for Atmospheric Research; NCAR) and other NCAR researchers, funded by the Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program, evaluated by how much and why the variability of within-season summer surface air temperature will increase by the end of the 21st century.

What can drought-stricken California expect from the El Niño winter forecast? 12 February 2016

What can drought-stricken California expect from the El Niño winter forecast?

A subgroup of the NOAA Drought Task Force recently released a science assessment looking at the relationship between El Niño and the California drought, a discussion that is pertinent within the context of the strong 2015/2016 El Niño event.
New CPO-funded research examines high resolution impacts on forecast skill of tropical cyclone activity in coupled prediction systems 28 December 2015

New CPO-funded research examines high resolution impacts on forecast skill of tropical cyclone activity in coupled prediction systems

New research funded by the Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program indicates that the potential for high-resolution coupled (atmosphere-ocean) modeling to improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity may be greater than previously believed.
Two new approaches to extended-range severe thunderstorm forecasts from CFSv2 1 December 2015

Two new approaches to extended-range severe thunderstorm forecasts from CFSv2

A study by Gregory Carbin (NOAA Storm Prediction Center), Michael Tippett (Columbia University), Samuel Lillo (University of Oklahoma), and Harold Brooks (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory), funded by CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program, introduces two new approaches for producing long-range severe thunderstorm predictions.
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