Precipitation patterns across the GL have changed significantly during recent decades, with overall increases in total and seasonal precipitation, the number of wet days, and the intensity of short-duration storm events, including extreme events. Economic costs associated with extreme precipitation events currently rank among the costliest weather- and climate-related natural disasters in the region. Detailed statistics of current and projected future precipitation characteristics, such as Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves, are essential for infrastructure planning and development and the operational management of natural and built environments. While pieces of this data exist for the GL region, coverage is limited by state, and the standard NOAA Atlas 14 historical reference statistics for some of the region are based on data only through 2003, missing many of the extreme events of the past 17 years. In addition, development of many of these statistics makes the assumption of stationarity, which is not valid in today’s changing climate. Based on these shortcomings and increasing demand for this information from our user community, we propose developing a new informational heavy precipitation data resource for the GL region based on existing information and newly updated historical data. We will integrate information from new datasets funded by NOAA and the Department of Defense to create a novel information product, co-produce guidance on how to use it, and evaluate its use with the help of Dr. Meadow. We will develop new, updated statistics on historical precipitation frequency, including IDF curves for 1948-2020, using the methodology from Angel et al. (2020) for the eight US states in the region. Historical statistics for sub-daily up to 10-day periods will be based on data from more than 300 individual observing sites obtained from NOAA NCEI’s Global Historical Climate Network Hourly Precipitation Data, from the Automated Surface Observing System data series, and from the Michigan’s Enviroweather mesonetwork. Projected future precipitation frequencies for the project domain from 2030-2100 will be based on the recent global climate model-derived results. We will also utilize 4.8-km resolution gridded radar based Multisensor Precipitation Estimate data. from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction to examine the spatial scales involved in heavy precipitation events across the region since 2002.
Deliverables Produced: The data resources developed in this project will provide detailed, up-to-date information on heavy and extreme precipitation event frequency across the GL region of the US, including data for both historical (1948-2020) and projected future time frames (2030-2100), and a user interface housed on GLISA’s newly redesigned website. We will also offer educational programming and training via a webinar series and self-training tutorials.
Stakeholder Need Addressed: Advance understanding, Innovate services, products, and tools, Inform plans & policies, Respond to legal / regulatory mandate
RISA Team: GLISA (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments)
Principle Investigators: Andresen
Team Members: Andresen
Key Supporters: Department of Defense (DOD)
Years Active: 2021 - 2026
Keywords: Adaptation, Agriculture, Extreme Events, Natural Hazards, Tribal, Urban
Geographic Location: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ontario, CA