Accurately simulating AEWs is critical to predicting Atlantic tropical cyclones and hurricanes, but new research supported by the Climate Variability and Predictability program, and accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate, demonstrates several shortcomings in CMIP5 models preventing accurate representation of AEWs.

NOAA’s Climate Program Office (CPO) has awarded more than $22.3 million to support 77 multi-year projects conducted by research partners.  With these new awards, CPO helps improve the breadth and scope of climate research, and offers opportunities for collaboration within and integration between programs. Potential research results will likely have impacts far beyond individual projects and funding programs.

Research funded by CPO’s Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) program has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.

Research funded by CPO's Climate Variability and Predictability program has been accepted for publication into Geophysical Research Letters. The paper, titled: "Stochastic forcing of north tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures by the North Atlantic Oscillation," showed that NAO-generated forcing of SST during boreal winter and spring is responsible for more than half the statistically unpredictable component of SST in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes during the subsequent summer and fall. 

A paper funded by the Climate Program Office’s MAPP and ESS programs was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) in December.  The paper - titled "Madden-Julian Oscillation - Bridging  Weather and Climate" - shows that the MJO, which sits in a time frame between weather (less than 10 days) and climate (90 days and longer), can affect both weather and climate and plays a critical role in connecting or bridging the two.