The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program hosted a webinar on the topic of Marine Ecosystems: Forecasting and Projecting Health and Resource Availability on Tuesday, December 2, 2014. The announcement is provided below; you are invited to remotely join the session.
Janet Nye -- Projecting the impacts of climate change on fish, fisheries and marine ecosystems -- Over the last decade, many collaborations between climate scientists and ecologists have been forged to project the impacts of climate change on fishes. Many of the first attempts involved only a few IPCC-class models and species that had a well-defined relationship with environmental parameters, namely temperature. More recent studies have used output from GCMs in a more sophisticated manner, examined temperature in addition to other variables and started to address how climate change may affect data poor species, such as those petitioned under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). However, only a few studies have addressed how ecosystems as a whole will be altered in a changing climate. This talk will review the progression of these studies with an emphasis on the progress that has been made since the first attempts to understand how fish populations and habitat may change in the future.
Charlie Stock -- Seasonal to Decadal-scale Climate Predictions for Marine Resource Management -- Abstract TBD
Anne Hollowed -- Strategies for developing climate-ready commercial fisheries in northeast Pacific marine ecosystems -- The talk will briefly review the key findings of recent climate impact assessments and strategies needed to prepare for projected changes. In the northeast Pacific scientists are using global climate and earth system model (CGM and ESM, respectively) output to project future ocean conditions. These models are being tested regionally and discussed globally. In the eastern Bering Sea, CGM output has been used to force regional ocean circulation models with coupled nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics. As we look to the future, the current challenge is to provide quantitative estimates of the status and trends of commercial fish and fisheries by 2019. To move beyond qualitative projections of future impacts scientists are striving to extend regional models to include projections of climate impacts on the distribution and abundance of commercial fish and fisheries. In the Bering Sea, a variety of different models can be employed ranging from minimally realistic single-species climate enhanced stock projection models with detailed treatment of process error, measurement error and model misspecification to whole ecosystem models with complex treatment of ecosystem interactions and only modest treatment of uncertainty. The proliferation of modelling improvements and global projections creates a dilemma for regional ocean modellers and fisheries scientists as the number of possible permutations that could be explored rapidly can become too large to manage. Identifying a reasonable range of representative futures (with sufficient contrast in scenarios) and biological models is needed to allow analysts to compare projections and report on the relationship between model complexity, efficiency, and the computational costs of increased ecological realism in models.