The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program hosted a webinar on the topic of Unified Modeling for Marine Applications on Monday, November 21, 2016. The announcement is provided below.
Charles Stock - Climate variability and change can drive abrupt ecosystem shifts that challenge marine resource management. Earth system predictions may anticipate such shifts, improving ecosystem-based management decisions and helping sustain coastal communities. Management decisions, however, are required across a broad range of space and time-scales, challenging NOAA’s Earth System modeling capacity. This talk will describe efforts to provide earth system predictions and projections across decision-relevant space/time scales. Under multi-decadal global warming, results emphasize dynamic yet uncertain regional physical and biogeochemical trends capable of driving pronounced changes in regional marine resource distributions and fisheries yields. Improved constraints on these impacts are essential, and most likely with integrated advances in both global and regional marine ecosystem projections. Use of seasonal to decadal physical climate predictions for marine resource management is rapidly expanding, but earth system prediction at these scales is still in its infancy. Early analyses, however, suggest that the predictability of ocean biogeochemical properties can exceed that of physical climate properties. This, together with the strong linkages between biogeochemical properties and marine resource responses, motivates ongoing efforts to fully integrate biogeochemistry with existing seasonal to decadal climate prediction systems.
Isaac Kaplan - J-SCOPE (http://www.nanoos.org/products/j-scope/) is a joint NOAA-University of Washington project that provides short term (six to nine month) forecasts of ocean conditions for the US Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. J-SCOPE links NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) to a high resolution regional model (ROMS). J-SCOPE forecasts reflect impacts of climate variability on sardine spatial distributions and on aragonite saturation state, which is relevant to plankton susceptible to ocean acidification. Initial J-SCOPE efforts focused on ocean conditions such as sea surface temperature and fish in the upper water column. However, model skill is better for bottom conditions including temperature and oxygen, and present efforts aim to hone J-SCOPE forecasts for bottom species such as Dungeness crab and groundfish. Following advice from CSIRO (Australia), we aim to tailor our forecasts to inform specific seasonal fishery management decisions, with appropriate lead times and feedback from stakeholders.
Kirstin Holsman - The Bering Sea (AK) has long supported some of the most productive fisheries in the US, representing nearly 50% of annual catches nationally while maintaining harvest rates below overfishing limits. Productivity in the region is strongly influenced by considerable variability in climate-driven changes to structuring processes and trophic interactions. Ensuring that regional fisheries management continues to be sustainable requires understanding how different fisheries management approaches attenuate or amplify climate-driven changes to fish and shellfish biomass. The 3 year ACLIM project was developed to address this need, and brings together climate, ecosystem, fishery management, and socioeconomic experts to evaluate the interacting effects of climate variability, trophic-dynamics, socioeconomic processes, and management measures on fish and fisheries dependent communities. The project provides a proof-of-concept implementation of an “end-to-end” Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework for assessing the performance of fisheries management strategies under different climate scenarios. Here we discuss challenges and approaches to coupling global climate and regional circulation models to multiple climate-enhanced biological and socio-economic models.