Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

Congressman Sean Casten of Illinois referenced new research on vapor pressure deficit to support his amendment calling for a study on the interaction between climate change and wildfires.

A new study, part of NOAA's Drought Task Force IV research, shows the leading cause of the rapid increase of wildfires over the western U.S. is the rapid increase of surface air vapor pressure deficit.

The Drought Task Force’s rapid response will help us understand the ongoing drought’s causes, how our science is helping us understand the drought, to what extent climate change is playing a role, and how the event may evolve.

Severe droughts are one of the costliest natural disasters in the United States, but the current level of skill in forecasting drought onset, development, and demise is limited.

In order to improve model predictions, an accurate characterization of the uncertainty in the model state, i.e soil moisture, is critical. With droughts becoming more severe and frequent, it’s imperative for researchers to study and improve drought monitoring.