NOAA DOE Precipitation Processes and Predictability Workshop Agenda

Day 1

Opening Session: Overview & Scope

Session 1: Limits and Sources of Predictability Part I

This session is aimed at (a) quantifying the current estimates of the limit of precipitation predictability, and the extent to which those estimates are realized as prediction skill, (b) identifying the key biases most likely to impact precipitation prediction over the US at different time scales, (c) propose strategies for exploiting existing/new observations and observation-modeling integration activities to diagnose & address the biases using new methodological and technological advances and (d) put forward diagnostics & metrics for quantifying prediction skill & predictability limits that can be used to detect advances on precipitation forecasts for long term monitoring of progress.

Slide Reel: Current Capabilities and Systems Relevant to Precipitation Processes and Predictability

Session 1: Limits and Sources of Predictability Part II

Day 2

Session 2: Key Processes Critical to Precipitation Biases

This session will discuss key processes relevant to precipitation in observations and in global models and identify the deficiencies and missing physics in current models to gain insights for further improving the prediction and simulations.

Session 3: Interdisciplinary Processes

This session covers key processes and interactions that are important in the transition zones on either side of an interface such as, ocean-atmosphere, land-atmosphere, aerosol-cloud-precipitation transitions, and troposphere-stratosphere connections.

Day 3

Session 4: Regional Precipitation

This session focuses on the regional aspects of precipitation prediction challenges, with emphasis on gaps in our observing systems, advanced data assimilation methods, and representation of key physical processes in the numerical prediction models for capturing severe weather events, their climatology, and variability.

Wrap-Up Session: Agencies/Programs Input

Workshop Website

Participants

Report

Resources

Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (Presentation, White Paper - updated on Nov. 19)

Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division Strategic Plan

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