Documents & Publications

Journal of Hydrometeorology - Advancing Drought Monitoring and Prediction

This special collection of the Journal of Hydrometeorology focuses on scientific research to advance the U.S.'s capability to monitor and predict drought, including the development of new data and methodologies. The results presented in this issue represent the outcomes of research in large part funded by NOAA's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, also leveraging other U.S. agencies' investments, and coordinated within the framework of the MAPP Drought Task Force. The collection includes a Synthesis paper that motivates the research, highlights the main results of the various investigations, and summarizes the remaining challenges and research gaps as well as the prospects for new global scale drought monitoring and prediction systems. The collection is divided broadly into papers addressing monitoring and those addressing the prediction problem, but also includes an important focus on improving our understanding of past droughts. The papers provide a state-of-the-practice / state-of-the-science assessment of the modern drought challenge and efforts to understand and manage it.

Collection Organizers:

Siegfried Schubert and Kingtse Mo, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; and Annarita Mariotti, NOAA Climate Program Office

Kingtse C. Mo, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Objective Drought Classification Using Multiple Land Surface Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 3, pp. 990–1010.

Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, Max Suarez, On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 3, pp. 1255-1273.

Sujay V. Kumar, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, Rolf Reichle, Yuqiong Liu, Kristi R. Arsenault, Youlong Xia, Michael Ek, George Riggs, Ben Livneh, Michael Cosh, Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture and snow depth retrievals for drought estimation. Journal of Hydrometeorology, early online release.

Youlong Xia, Michael B. Ek, David Mocko, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Justin Sheffield, Jiarui Dong, Eric F. Wood, Uncertainties, Correlations, and Optimal Blends of Drought Indices from the NLDAS Multiple Land Surface Model Ensemble. Journal of Hydrometeorology, early online release.

Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, A prototype Global Drought Information System based on multiple land surface models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, early online release.

Jiarui Dong, Mike Ek, Dorothy Hall, Christa Peters-Lidard, Brian Cosgrove, Jeff Miller, George Riggs, Youlong Xia, Using Air Temperature to Quantitatively Predict the MODIS Fractional Snow Cover Retrieval Errors over the Continental United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 2, pp. 551-562.

Johnna M. Infanti, Ben P. Kirtman, Southeastern U.S. Rainfall Prediction in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 2, pp. 529-550.

M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, R. Seager, Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, Iss. 2, pp. 269–282.

Paul A. Dirmeyer, Jiangfeng Wei, Michael G. Bosilovich, David M. Mocko, Comparing Evaporative Sources of Terrestrial Precipitation and Their Extremes in MERRA Using Relative Entropy. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 1, pp. 102-116.

Xing Yuan, Eric F. Wood, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Justin Sheffield, Jonghun Kam, Miaoling Liang, Kaiyu Guan, Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Iss. 6, pp. 1706-1720.

Randal D. Koster, Gregory K. Walker, Sarith P. P. Mahanama, Rolf H. Reichle, Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 1, pp. 69-88.

Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, Dong Eun Lee, Dynamical Causes of the 2010/11 Texas-Northern Mexico Drought. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 1, pp. 39-68.

Shahrbanou Madadgar, Hamid Moradkhani, A Bayesian Framework for Probabilistic Seasonal Drought Forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Iss. 6, pp. 1685-1705.

Zengchao Hao, Amir AghaKouchak, A Nonparametric Multivariate Multi-Index Drought Monitoring Framework. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Iss. 1, pp. 89-101.

Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, Mark Svoboda, Examining Rapid Onset Drought Development Using the Thermal Infrared–Based Evaporative Stress Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Iss. 4, pp. 1057-1074.

Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein, An Intercomparison of Drought Indicators Based on Thermal Remote Sensing and NLDAS-2 Simulations with U.S. Drought Monitor Classifications. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Iss. 4, pp. 1035-1056.

M. Hoerling, S. Schubert, K. Mo, A. AghaKouchak , H. Berbery, J. Dong, M. Hoerling, A. Kumar, V. Lakshmi, R. Leung, J. Li, X. Liang, L. Luo, B. Lyon, D. Miskus, K. Mo, X. Quan, S. Schubert, R. Seager, S. Sorooshian, H. Wang, Y. Xia, N. Zeng, 2013: An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought. Composed by the Narrative Team of the NOAA Drought Task Force.

Drought Task Force Assessment Protocol
Prepared by the Drought Task Force on August 8, 2013. Composed by Research to Capability Team.

Mariotti, A., Schubert, S., Mo, K., Peters-Lidard, C., Wood, A., Pulwarty, R., Huang, J. Barrie, D., 2013: Advancing drought understanding, monitoring and prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, No. 12, December 2013: ES186-ES188.


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Dr. Annarita Mariotti
MAPP Program Director, on detail to EOP/OSTP
P: 301-734-1237

Dr. Daniel Barrie
Acting MAPP Program Director
P: 301-734-1256

Courtney Byrd
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 301-734-1257

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