• Prospectus
• Agenda & Presentations
• Participants
• Logistics

Report | Executive Summary | Agenda

Day 1

Session 1: Setting the Stage – Team talks and discussions on current state-of-the-science

Chairs: Franco Molteni and Bill Collins
Rapporteurs:  Travis O’Brien and Cristiana Stan

Team 1: State of the science in seamless sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions
Jim Kinter and Shian-Jiann Lin, Team 1 Leads

Team 2: State of the science in using initialized climate models for testing model physics and understanding model processes and biases [e.g. CAPT]
Brian Medeiros, Travis O’Brien and Steve Klein, Team 2 Leads

Team 3: Current initialization capabilities
Steve Penny and Kevin Raeder, Team 3 Leads

Team 4: Computational and infrastructure environment in the next 5 years and the limits on high resolution initialized simulations - Part 1 (Collins), Part 2 (Gross)
Bill Putman, Brian Gross, and Bill Collins, Team 4 Leads

Session 2: The Nexus: Resolution – Processes – Prediction

Chair: S.J. Lin
Rapporteurs: Kinter and Putman

The impact of super-parameterization on the sub-seasonal forecast skill
Cristiana Stan, COLA, George Mason University

Tackling seasonal prediction of extremes with high-res coupled models: extratropical storm tracks
XiaoSong Yang and Gabriel Vecchi, GFDL

High-resolution sea-ice prediction: coupled processes and prediction system development - Part 1 (Bitz), Part 2 (Hogan)
Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington and Patrick Hogan, Naval Research Laboratory

High-resolution extended-range predictions at ECMWF: results and expectations
Franco Molteni, ECMWF

Addressing the Discussion Questions
Facilitated by Jim Kinter and S.J. Lin (Team 1) and Bill Putman (Team 4)

Day 2

Session 3: Frameworks for Diagnosing Fast Physics in the Coupled System

Chair:  Steve Klein and Brian Medeiros
Rapporteurs: Travis O’Brien and Bill Collins

Prospects for high resolution to improve small-scale atmospheric processes
Julio Bacmeister, NCAR

Prospects for high resolution to improve small-scale land processes and land-atmosphere interactions
Ruby Leung, PNNL

Prospects for high resolution to improve small-scale ocean processes and ocean-atmosphere interactions
Frank Bryan, NCAR

Using initialized and high-resolution simulations to diagnose the growth of systematic biases in the coupled system and the contribution of fast physical processes to systematic biases
Eric Guilyardi, IPSL and U of Reading

Addressing the Discussion Questions
Facilitated by Steve Klein, Brian Medeiros, Travis O’Brien (Team 2) and Bill Collins (Team 4)

Session 4: Initialization at High Resolution and Uncertainty Sampling for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Chair:  Suru Saha
Rapporteurs: Steve Penny and Brian Gross

Data assimilation for high resolution prediction initialization at NASA
Santha Akella, Bill Putman, Guillaume Vernieres and Clara Draper, NASA

Two promising solutions for the CFS systematic errors: Strongly coupled data assimilation, and bias correction based on analysis increments
Eugenia Kalnay, UMD

Initialization of global ocean eddy resolving coupled simulations
Ben Kirtman, U of Miami

Fully coupled data assimilation for high-res initialization in DART
Kevin Raeder, NCAR