Exploring the Seasonal Prediction of Coastal High Water Levels and Changing Living Marine Resources

In partnership with the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Science and Technology, NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program is funding 8 new three-year projects to enhance our nation’s capability to produce seasonal predictions of coastal high water levels and living marine resources. The competitively funded projects include $3.9 million in grants and $0.9 million in other awards (for a total of $4.8 million).

Nuisance flooding in Annapolis, Maryland, in 2012. Nuisance flooding has increased rapidly along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast. Photo by Amy McGovern.

NOAA strives to increase the resilience of communities to changing climate and ocean conditions through improved products and services that provide reliable climate-related information. Recent climate trends have increased the vulnerability of many U.S. communities to coastal flooding and have caused changes in the distribution and abundance of living marine resources. In addition to longer-term trends, natural seasonal variations such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (an alternating pattern of abnormally warm and cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) can also affect sea levels and ocean temperatures, and ultimately coastal communities, fish stocks, and other marine life. Given the increasingly recognized link between seasonal changes in coastal ocean conditions and potentially predictable sources of climate or ocean variability, the 8 new projects aim to leverage this relationship to develop seasonal predictions of coastal high water levels and changes in living marine resources.

The new projects will provide foundational elements to increase the resiliency of coastal communities and economies, supporting the missions of NOAA’s National Ocean Service and National Marine Fisheries Service. These groups prioritize improved coastal intelligence through products and services, and increased production and use of climate-related information in fisheries management and conservation, respectively. In addition, the funded research will complement international efforts such as the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project, under the umbrella of the WMO-Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology.

The 8 new projects 1 to be funded by the MAPP Program in 2017 are:

  • “Downscaled Seasonal Forecasts for Living Marine Resource Management of the U.S. West Coast” — Lead PI: Michael Jacox (University of California, Santa Cruz); Co-PIs: Michael Alexander (NOAA/ESRL), Steven Bograd (NOAA/Southwest Fisheries Science Center), Christopher Edwards (University of California Santa Cruz), Jerome Fiechter (University of California Santa Cruz), Elliott Hazen (NOAA/Southwest Fisheries Science Center), Samantha Siedlecki (University of Washington)
  • Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction of the Distribution of Fish and Marine Mammals in the Northeast U.S. — Lead PI: Lesley Thorne (Stony Brook University); Co-PIs: Janet Nye (Stony Brook University), Hyemi Kim (Stony Brook University)
  • Seasonal Forecasting Applications for Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management in the Eastern Bering Sea — Lead PI: Kerim Aydin (NOAA/Alaska Fisheries Science Center); Co-PIs: Albert Hermann (University of Washington), Phyllis Stabeno (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory), Michael Alexander (NOAA/ESRL)
  • “Multi-Model Seasonal Sea Level Forecasts for the U.S. Coast” Lead PI: Mark Merrifield (University of Hawai’i at Manoa); Co-PIs: Matthew Widlansky (University of Hawai’i at Manoa), Philip Thompson (University of Hawai’i at Manoa), H. Annamalai (University of Hawai’i at Manoa), Arun Kumar (NOAA/CPC), William Sweet (NOAA/CO-OPS), Eric Leuliette (NOAA/STAR), John Marra (NOAA/NCEI), Gary Mitchum (University of South Florida)
  • Development and Evaluation of a Seasonal-to-Interannual Statistical Forecasting System for Oceanographic Conditions and Living Marine Resources on the Northeast U.S. Shelf — Lead PI: Young-Oh Kwon (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution); Co-PIs: Ke Chen (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Terry Joyce (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Janet Nye (Stony Brook University), Jon Hare (NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center), Paula Fratantoni (NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center), Vincent Saba (NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center), Tim Miller (NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center)
  • “Using a Synoptic Climatological Framework to Assess Predictability of Anomalous Coastal Sea Levels in NOAA High Priority Areas” — Lead PI: Scott Sheridan (Kent State University); Co-PIs: Cameron Lee (Kent State University), Doug Pirhalla (NOAA Coastal Services Center), Varis Ransibrahmanaku (NOAA/NCCOS)
  • “Understanding and Quantifying the Predictability of Marine Ecosystem Drivers in the California Current System” — Lead PI: Arthur Miller (Scripps Institution of Oceanography); Co-PIs: Antonietta Capotondi (NOAA/ESRL/PSD), Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Institute of Technology)
  • Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of Ocean Conditions in the Pacific Northwest to Aid the Crab Fishery — Lead PI: Samantha Siedlecki (University of Washington); Co-PIs: Issac Kaplan (NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center), Nicholas Bond (University of Washington), Al Hermann (University of Washington), Jan Newton (University of Washington), Mike Alexander (NOAA/ESRL), Simone Alin (NOAA PMEL)
1 At the time of publication, all awards may not have been accepted by recipient institutions

2018 Federal Funding Opportunities at a Glance

Important Dates/Deadlines

Letters of Intent

LOIs for all competitions should be received via email by 5:00 p.m. ET on April 2, 2018.

A response to the LOI from the Competition Manager (e-mail or letter) will be sent to the investigator within four weeks after the LOI’s due date encouraging or discouraging a full application based on its relevance to the targeted Competition.

Full Applications

Full applications for all competitions must be received by 5:00 p.m. ET on May 18, 2018.

Applications must be submitted via http://www.grants.gov. For applications submitted through grants.gov, the basis for determining timeliness is the receipt notice issued by http://www.grants.gov, which includes the date and time received.

For applicants without internet access, please contact the CPO Grants Manager Diane Brown by mail at NOAA Climate Program Office (R/CP1), SSMC3, Room 12734, 1315 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910 to obtain an application package. Please allow two weeks after receipt for a response. Hard copy submissions will be date and time stamped when they are received in the Climate Program Office.

Emailed or faxed copies of applications will not be accepted.

Applications received after these dates and times will not be considered for funding.

Where to Submit

Application packages:
Visit Grants.gov and
click on Apply for Grants. You may also directly view the Grants.gov listing here.

Federal Funding Opportunity Number:
NOAA-OAR-CPO-2018-2005492

Applicants without Internet access:
Please send mail to:
Diane Brown
CPO Grants Manager
NOAA Climate Program Office (R/CP1), SSMC3, Room 12734
1315 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910

Please allow two weeks after receipt for a response.

Questions/Who to Contact

Diane Brown, CPO Grants Manager diane.brown@noaa.gov

Competition Description & Contact

CVP – Pre-Field Modeling Studies in Support of TPOS Process Studies, a Component of TPOS 2020

Contact: Sandy Lucas
In the First Report of TPOS 2020 (Tropical Pacific Observing System 2020, tpos2020.org), many recommendations and proposed actions were identified. The use of process studies that will inform further refinement of TPOS was noted as a critical part of the implementation process that can guide the development of the system design. Two of the studies that are recommended in the report are called “Pacific Upwelling and Mixing Physics (PUMP)” (section 6.2.1) and “Air–sea Interaction at the eastern edge of the Warm Pool” (section 6.2.3). Each of these studies focus on improved predictability of the overall evolution of the Pacific climate system on seasonal to interannual timescales (MJO, ENSO, etc.), which is beneficial to NOAA’s mission of improved environmental prediction. This solicitation is intended to contribute to the goals of TPOS 2020.

In FY 2018, the CVP program solicits modeling projects that will refine the current scientific understanding of the equatorial Pacific climate system with a specific focus on two process studies identified in the TPOS 2020 First Report, “Pacific Upwelling and Mixing Physics (PUMP)” (section 6.2.1) and “Air–sea Interaction at the eastern edge of the Warm Pool” (section 6.2.3). The CVP Program encourages a hierarchy of modeling approaches. Outcomes from these projects will be used for pre-cruise planning and field campaign development.

Where to Submit

Application packages:
Visit Grants.gov and
click on Apply for Grants. You may also directly view the Grants.gov listing here.

Federal Funding Opportunity Number:
NOAA-OAR-CPO-2018-2005492

Applicants without Internet access:
Please send mail to:
Diane Brown
CPO Grants Manager
NOAA Climate Program Office (R/CP1), SSMC3, Room 12734
1315 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910

Please allow two weeks after receipt for a response.

For Federal Investigators

Federal lead investigators who wish to apply to this Announcement of Opportunity must prepare a proposal according to the FFO guidelines and submit the proposal to the program manager directly, instead of to Grants.gov. Federal co-investigators must submit a proposal identical to the proposal lead investigator but with personalized budget information.

Letters of Intent for Federal investigators should be received by the Competition Manager by 5:00 p.m. ET on April 2, 2018 for all competitions.

Full applications for all Competitions must be received by 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, May 18, 2018.

ABOUT OUR ORGANIZATION

Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2017, the United States experienced a record-tying 16 climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 362 lives, and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted, costing more than $306 billion. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.

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