NOAA Climate Test Bed - Advancing NOAA's Operational Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Capability

NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program is funding six new Climate Test Bed projects for an initial $1.03 million and a $2.04 million over the life of the project (two years).

NOAA’s operational prediction efforts are a core part of NOAA’s mission to support economic vitality and protect American lives and resources. As part of NOAA’s research Line Office OAR, the MAPP program supports research and its transition into improved operational capabilities, products, and services. MAPP supports research to improve the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center’s operational products in part by partnering with NCEP to support the Climate Test Bed to test and demonstrate the potential for scientific advances from the community external to NCEP to improve operational climate predictions. MAPP provides support for testing and demonstration research phases, whereas NCEP provides support for the operational implementation phase.

In FY 2018, the MAPP Program, in partnership with the NWS/OSTI/NGGPS Program, solicited proposals involving the external community to advance the Climate Prediction Center’s subseasonal to seasonal prediction capabilities via the Climate Test Bed. These project build on a long and highly successful series of investments that have resulted in numerous prominent operational transitions at the Weather Service, including the Noah land surface model and improvements, the CPC week 3-4 forecast products, various operational drought products, the North American Multi Model Ensemble, various improvements to the operational Climate Forecast System, and many others. Research projects for FY18-FY19 will focus on the following areas:

  1. Testing and demonstration of experimental prediction methodologies (e.g. new calibration or post-processing techniques, verification techniques) or systems (e.g., experimental multi-model combinations, hybrid statistical/dynamical systems, merging of systems across timescales to advance subseasonal prediction) developed in the broader community for operational purposes.
  2. Improving multi-model ensemble prediction systems such as the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME ) by testing and demonstrating the utility of new or higher-resolution models, improved forecast initialization practices, or upgrades to other aspects of the system.

The six new projects supported by MAPP CTB in FY18 include:

  • “Sensitivity of NMME Seasonal Predictions to Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Models” - PI: Robert Burgman, Florida International University
  • “Sensitivity of NMME Seasonal Predictions to Ocean Eddy Resolving Coupled Models” - PI: Benjamin Kirtman, University of Miami
  • “Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction with NCAR's CESM2-WACCM” - PI: Jakdkwiga Richter, UCAR
  • “Testing, Refinement and Demonstration of Probabilistic Multi-Model, Calibrated Subseasonal Global Forecast Products” - PI: Andrew Robertson, Columbia University
  • “Skillfully Predicting Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts in Weeks 2-5 Based on the State of the MJO and QBO” - PI: Elizabeth Barnes, Colorado State University
  • “Operational transition of novel statistical-dynamical forecasts for tropical subseasonal-to-seasonal drivers” - PI: Carl Schreck, NC State University

The OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality consulted on funding decisions for these new projects.

GRANTS/FFO NEWS


SARP Coping with Drought in Support of NIDIS Webinar: Explaining the Proposal Process SARP Coping with Drought in Support of NIDIS Webinar: Explaining the Proposal Process

SARP Coping with Drought in Support of NIDIS Webinar: Explaining the Proposal Process

Nancy Beller-Simms, Program Managers, will provide: (a) a brief description of the funding opportunity, (b) a discussion of key components required within a proposal submission, and (c) pointers for producing a more applicable and compelling proposal for these competitions. This will be done via goto meeting.

Webinar on the CEE FY19 FFO Webinar on the CEE FY19 FFO

Webinar on the CEE FY19 FFO

On Oct. 12, 2018, David Herring, manager of CPO's CEE Division, conducted a public webinar on the CEE competition within CPO's FY19 FFO, titled "Building U.S Communities' and Businesses' Resilience to Extreme Events."

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Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2017, the United States experienced a record-tying 16 climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 362 lives, and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted, costing more than $306 billion. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.

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