Boundary organizations, knowledge networks, and information brokers have been suggested as mechanisms that help integrate information into decision-making and enhance interactions between the producers and users of climate information. While these mechanisms have been discussed in many studies in disparate fields of research, there has been little empirical research describing how they relate and support each other within studies on climate services. In this paper, two Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forums (CariCOFs) convened in 2014 are studied. CariCOFs facilitate the production of regional seasonal climate information and the dissemination of it to a diverse climate and socioeconomic region. Network analysis, key informant interviews, and small group discussions were used to answer two questions: 1) what are the barriers to using seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) by CariCOF participants and 2) what are the iterative processes of information exchange that address these barriers? The barriers to using SCF include difficulty in demonstrating the value of the forecast to potential users, difficulty in interpreting and explaining the forecast to others, and challenges associated with the scientific language used in the information. To address these constraints, the convener of the CariCOF acts as a boundary organization by enabling interactions between participants representing diverse sectoral and geographic settings. This develops a network that helps build shared scientific understanding and knowledge about how different sectors experience climate risk. These interactions guide information brokering activities that help individuals communicate and translate climate information to facilitate understanding at local levels.
Journal: Weather, Climate, and Society: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0076.1
Author: Guido, Zack. Valerie Rountree. Christina Greene. Andrea Gerlak. Adrian Trotman
Published Date: 2016-06
Topic (s): boundary organizations, knowledge networks
Publication Type: Journal
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This study examines the dynamics of late spring rainfall (the Early Rainy Season, ERS) in the Caribbean region, in hopes of identifying mechanistic‐based predictors for low‐frequency climate modulations of the system. The subtropical Caribbean rain‐belt develops in May as seasonal warming proceeds. By July, the rain‐belt retreats north apparently following the westerlies and their vigorous synoptic disturbances. Daily climatology data suggest a physical definition of the Caribbean ERS as mid‐May to mid‐late June. Based on an examination of daily loops for several seasons, we hypothesize that rainfall occurs quasi‐randomly throughout tongues of air with sufficiently high (above 45–50 mm) precipitable water (PW). These moist airmasses are brought north from the deep tropics by low‐level southerlies, and typically bent over into SW‐NE bands by latitudinal shear of the westerlies. The low‐level flow that transports PW tongues is partly induced by upper‐level synoptic disturbances in the westerlies, but also involves the gentle persistent flow around a geographically anchored Panama Low. While forced ascent is sometimes active ahead of these upper‐level troughs, convective and mesoscale processes can produce rain wherever PW is sufficient. In summary, we hypothesize that rainfall hinges largely on the Lagrangian statistics of moist air tongues. Comparison is drawn between the Caribbean rain‐belt and its East Asian counterpart (Meiyu‐Baiu), and other mechanisms and diagnostics from that literature are discussed. Statistical prediction exercises, based on mechanistically chosen predictors, could both test hypotheses and aid local agricultural interests in the region.
Author: Allen, Theodore L.; Brian E. Mapes
Published Date: 2017-06
Topic (s): Caribbean precipitation; Caribbean rain-belt; mid-summer drought; Caribbean early rainfall season; Caribbean; precipitation
The International Research and Applications Project (IRAP), Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience, advances research on adaptation and resilience to climate variability and change while also advancing the application of climate services. The project supports risk management through research-based improvements in design, development, and provision of climate information, particularly as they contribute to national and regional development goals.
NOAA is pleased to present the first IRAP report, entitled "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience in the Caribbean". The report synthesizes a workshop held in Kingston, Jamaica, May 29-30, 2014, sponsored by NOAA and USAID, in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology.
Author: Guido, Zackry. James Buizer. Tim Finan. S Gavin. Andrea Gerlak. Lisa Goddard. Christina Greene. Richard Johnson. Diana Liverman. Simon Mason. Ángel Muñoz.
Published Date: 2014-05
Topic (s): climate information integration, regional resilience
Publication Type: Workshop report
Download: IRAP report _sm.pdf
This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWS requires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes and forecastable. No such definition has been developed for Bangladesh. Using a generalized additive regression model, a heat-wave definition is proposed that requires elevated minimum and maximum daily temperatures over the 95th percentile for 3 consecutive days, confirming the importance of nighttime conditions for health impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during heat waves; this result can be used as an argument for public-health interventions to prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability of these heat waves exists from weather to seasonal time scales, offering opportunities for a range of preparedness measures. Heat waves are associated with an absence of normal premonsoonal rainfall brought about by anomalously strong low-level westerly winds and weak southerlies, detectable up to approximately 10 days in advance. This circulation pattern occurs over a background of drier-than-normal conditions, with below-average soil moisture and precipitation throughout the heat-wave season from April to June. Low soil moisture increases the odds of heat-wave occurrence for 10–30 days, indicating that subseasonal forecasts of heat-wave risk may be possible by monitoring soil-moisture conditions.
Author: Nissan, Hannah; Katrin Burkart; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Maarten Van Aalst; Simon Mason
Published Date: 2017-10
Topic (s): climate prediction; seasonal forecasting; short-range prediction; emergency preparedness; policy
The purpose of this mid-term review is to assess progress of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) implementation and the approaches and developments in the GFCS's evolution in order to measure the success of implemented activities and to provide guidance on improivements. Also, provide recommendations to inform implementation.
Author: Gerlak, A.; Z. Guido; C. Knudson
Published Date: 2017
Topic (s): climate services
Publication Type: Published report
Access to climate information has the potential to build adaptive capacity, improve agricultural profitability, and help manage risks. To achieve these benefits, knowledge of the local context is needed to inform information development, delivery, and use. We examine coffee farming in the Jamaican Blue Mountains (BM) to understand farmer livelihoods, opportunities for climate knowledge to benefit coffee production, and the factors that impinge on farmers’ ability to use climate information. Our analysis draws on interviews and 12 focus groups involving 143 participants who largely cultivate small plots. BM farmers currently experience stresses related to climate, coffee leaf rust, and production costs that interrelate concurrently and with time lags. Under conditions that reduce income, BM farmers compensate by adjusting their use of inputs, which can increase their susceptibility to future climate and disease stresses. However, farmers can also decrease impacts of future stressors by more efficiently and effectively allocating their limited resources. In this sense, managing climate, like the other stresses, is an ongoing process. While we identify climate products that can help farmers manage climate risk, the local context presents barriers that argue for interactive climate services that go beyond conventional approaches of information production and delivery. We discuss how dialogs between farmers, extension personnel, and climate scientists can create a foundation from which use can emerge.
Author: Guido, Zack; Tim Finan; Kevon Rhiney; Malgosia Madajewicz; Valerie Rountree; Elizabeth Johnson; Gusland McCook
Published Date: 2018-03
Topic (s): climate services; coffee industry
In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.
Author: Coughlan de Perez, Erin; et. al.
Published Date: 2017-09
Topic (s): climate; flood forecasting; flood management; soil moisture; rainfall; emergency preparedness; floods; flooding; indicators; arid regions; arid environments; extreme values; rain; wet climates; disaster management; hydrology
Coffee leaf rust (CLR) is the most destructive coffee disease in the world (Luaces et al., 2011) and has negatively impacted coffee production since the late 1800s (McCook, 2006). CLR damages coffee plants and decreases yields, which in turn reduces labor, influences wages, affects market prices, and inhibits farmers’ ability to manage their farms. The cumulative effects reduce farmer income, affecting livelihoods and food security, and force some to abandon their farms or switch to different crops altogether (WCR, 2014).
In recent years, CLR epidemics have been particularly damaging in Latin American and the Caribbean (Avelino et al., 2015). In 2012–2013, CLR epidemics cost farmers in these regions an estimated $500 million in lost production alone (ICO, 2013) and led to reduced production for at least two years (Avelino et al., 2015). Efforts to minimize the impacts of future outbreaks have led to research on new coffee varieties and, in the case of Colombia, large-scale programs to replace susceptible varieties with more resistant ones (De Silva and Tisdell, 1988; Arneson, 2000; Avelino et al., 2015). Capacitybuilding efforts that enable better management also have been implemented (e.g. De Silva and Tisdell, 1988; Staver et al., 2001; Shiomi et al., 2002; Santamaria and Bayman, 2005; Jackson et al., 2012; Zambolim et al., 2016). These efforts will be aided by the development of early warning systems (e.g. Alves et al., 2011; Luaces et al., 2011; Perez-Ariza et al., 2012; Avelino et al., 2015) and decision-support tools (e.g. Meira et al., 2009; Cintra et al., 2011). The provision of climate-related information has been offered as a vital element in these efforts (Avelino et al., 2015).
The causes of and responses to CLR are complex and demonstrate the multi-faceted relationship between disease characteristics, environmental conditions, climate and weather triggers, and the human actions that promote or hinder the disease. Although there are many factors to consider when managing CLR, climate and weather information has the potential to help farmers with disease management, but has thus far been under used. This document is step toward assessing the state of knowledge roles of weather and climate in supporting the growth and spread of CLR. It draws from more than 50 peer-reviewed articles, reports, and presentations related to CLR and coffee management to provide a summary of the current state of knowledge on the climate and weather influences on CLR.
Author: Rountree, Valerie. Zack Guido.
Published Date: 2016-05
Topic (s): Coffee leaf rust, disease management, agriculture, climate
Publication Type: Fact sheet
Download: IRAP-fact-sheet_updated_26Jun16.pdf
Starting in 2014, Jamaica has been in one of the worst droughts recorded since the 1970s. The drought’s effects on rural livelihood and the Jamaican economy have been devastating. According to widely published reports, the annual agricultural production declined by 30% in 2014 relative to 2013. This, along with brush fires, resulted in $1 billion loss for the economy. In response to the drought, the Jamaican Meteorological Service (JMS), in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) produced new seasonal drought- related forecast information. The information was provided to over 300 farmers during June 2014-June 2015 by JMS with the help of the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA). The farmers received the information through farmer forums, phone text messages, extension agents, and by contacting the JMS. While anecdotal stories suggest that the losses in agricultural production might have been much greater if not for the provision of the information service by the JMS, they do not constitute robust evidence regarding the economic benefit of the information service. The goal of this study is to evaluate the economic impact of the service provided.
Author: Rahman, Tauhidur. James Buizer. Zackry Guido.
Published Date: 2016-02.
Topic (s): economy, seasonal drought, agriculture, climate services, Jamaica
Publication Type: Final report
Download: Economic-Impact-of-Drought_Information_Service_FINAL.pdf
The convergence of evolving scientific and institutional capabilities on the national and international landscapes provided a natural opportunity (and imperative) for NOAA’s Climate Program Office to convene a dialogue with a sub-set number of our partners and stakeholders to thoughtfully explore and consider some of the challenges and opportunities associated with moving into the next phase of international climate services development. Given the scope of the challenge, this workshop was designed to deal specifically with those issues most relevant to understanding and responding to the needs of decision makers, and the potential implications for NOAA’s future directions and program investments. It was not intended to cover all dimensions of the development and use of climate information services. This workshop report is the summary of this dialogue and offers some potential directions for NOAA’s international climate applications and services development activities.
Author: Vaughan, Lisa. IRAP Project Manager
Published Date: 2011-05
Topic (s): IRAP
Publication Type: Summary Report
Download: InternationalClimateServicesWorkshopSummary.pdf
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Lisa Vaughan Program Manager, International Research and Applications Project (IRAP) P: 1 (301) 734-1277 F: 1 (301) 713-0518 E: lisa.vaughan@noaa.gov
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Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather.