This paper proposes a heat-wave definition for Bangladesh that could be used to trigger preparedness measures in a heat early warning system (HEWS) and explores the climate mechanisms associated with heat waves. A HEWS requires a definition of heat waves that is both related to human health outcomes and forecastable. No such definition has been developed for Bangladesh. Using a generalized additive regression model, a heat-wave definition is proposed that requires elevated minimum and maximum daily temperatures over the 95th percentile for 3 consecutive days, confirming the importance of nighttime conditions for health impacts. By this definition, death rates increase by about 20% during heat waves; this result can be used as an argument for public-health interventions to prevent heat-related deaths. Furthermore, predictability of these heat waves exists from weather to seasonal time scales, offering opportunities for a range of preparedness measures. Heat waves are associated with an absence of normal premonsoonal rainfall brought about by anomalously strong low-level westerly winds and weak southerlies, detectable up to approximately 10 days in advance. This circulation pattern occurs over a background of drier-than-normal conditions, with below-average soil moisture and precipitation throughout the heat-wave season from April to June. Low soil moisture increases the odds of heat-wave occurrence for 10–30 days, indicating that subseasonal forecasts of heat-wave risk may be possible by monitoring soil-moisture conditions.
Author: Nissan, Hannah; Katrin Burkart; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Maarten Van Aalst; Simon Mason
Published Date: 2017-10
Topic (s): climate prediction; seasonal forecasting; short-range prediction; emergency preparedness; policy
Publication Type: Journal
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This study explores the predictive skill of seasonal rainfall characteristics for the first rainy (and planting) season, May–June, in Central America. Statistical predictive models were built using a Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique based on canonical correlation analysis, in which variables that forecast with the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) were used as candidate predictors for the observed total precipitation, frequency of rainy days and mean number of extremely dry and wet events in the season. CFSv2 initializations from February to April were explored. The CFSv2 variables used in the study consist of rainfall, as in a typical MOS technique, and a combination of low‐level winds and convective available potential energy (CAPE), a blend that has been previously shown to be a good predictor for convective activity. The highest predictive skill was found for the seasonal frequency of rainy days, followed by the mean frequency of dry events. In terms of candidate predictors, the zonal transport of CAPE (uCAPE) at 925 hPa offers higher skill across Central America than rainfall, which is attributed in part to the high model uncertainties associated with precipitation in the region. As expected, dynamical model predictors initialized in February provide lower skill than those initialized later. Nonetheless, the skill is comparable for March and April initializations. These results suggest that the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Central America, and the Central American Regional Climate Outlook Forum, can produce earlier more skilful forecasts for May–June rainfall characteristics than previously stated.
Author: Alfaro, Eric J.; Xandre Chourio. Angel G. Munoz, Simon J. Mason
Published Date: 2017-11
Topic (s): seasonal climate prediction; precipitation; statistical models; MOS predictive schemes; canonical correlation analysis
In many regions around the world, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) provide seasonal climate information and forecasts to decision-makers at regional and national levels. Despite having two decades of experience, the forums have not been systematically monitored or evaluated. To address this gap, and to better inform nascent and widespread efforts in climate services, the authors propose a process-oriented evaluation framework derived from literature on decision support and climate communication around the production and use of scientific information. The authors apply this framework to a case study of the Caribbean RCOF (CariCOF), where they have been engaged in a collaborative effort to integrate climate information and decision processes to enhance regional climate resilience. The authors’ examination of the CariCOF shows an evolution toward the use of more advanced and more diverse climate products, as well as greater awareness of user feedback. It also reveals shortfalls of the CariCOF, including a lack of diverse stakeholder participation, a need for better understanding of best practices to tailor information, undeveloped market research of climate products, insufficient experimentation and vetting of communication mechanisms, and the absence of a way to steward a diverse network of regional actors. The authors’ analysis also provides insight that allowed for improvements in the climate services framework to include mechanisms to respond to changing needs and conditions. The authors’ process-oriented framework can serve as a starting point for evaluating RCOFs and other organizations charged with the provision of climate services.
Author: Gerlak, Andrea K., Guido, Z., Vaughan, C., Rountree, V., Greene, C., Liverman, D., Trotman, A. R., Mahon, R., Cox, S.-A., Mason, S. J., Jacobs, K. L., Buizer, J. L., Meerbeeck, C. J. Van and Baethgen, W. E.
Published Date: 2018-02
Topic (s): social science
Download: Gerlak et al. 2018 Evaluation of Outlook Forums.pdf
Access to climate information has the potential to build adaptive capacity, improve agricultural profitability, and help manage risks. To achieve these benefits, knowledge of the local context is needed to inform information development, delivery, and use. We examine coffee farming in the Jamaican Blue Mountains (BM) to understand farmer livelihoods, opportunities for climate knowledge to benefit coffee production, and the factors that impinge on farmers’ ability to use climate information. Our analysis draws on interviews and 12 focus groups involving 143 participants who largely cultivate small plots. BM farmers currently experience stresses related to climate, coffee leaf rust, and production costs that interrelate concurrently and with time lags. Under conditions that reduce income, BM farmers compensate by adjusting their use of inputs, which can increase their susceptibility to future climate and disease stresses. However, farmers can also decrease impacts of future stressors by more efficiently and effectively allocating their limited resources. In this sense, managing climate, like the other stresses, is an ongoing process. While we identify climate products that can help farmers manage climate risk, the local context presents barriers that argue for interactive climate services that go beyond conventional approaches of information production and delivery. We discuss how dialogs between farmers, extension personnel, and climate scientists can create a foundation from which use can emerge.
Author: Guido, Zack; Tim Finan; Kevon Rhiney; Malgosia Madajewicz; Valerie Rountree; Elizabeth Johnson; Gusland McCook
Published Date: 2018-03
Topic (s): climate services; coffee industry
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions.
The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.
Author: Thompkins, A.; R. Lowe; H. Nissan et. al.
Published Date: 2018-10
Topic (s): Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction; health
Publication Type: Book chapter
Researchers funded by NOAA's International Research and Applications Project (IRAP) convened a workshop in San Juan, Puerto Rico on March 28-29, 2019, on building public health resilience to severe weather in a changing climate.
The purpose of the event was to identify opportunities for integrating weather and climate science into public health decision making, with a focus on Puerto Rico. A total of 29 participants attended the workshop, including representatives from civic organizations (e.g., Heart to Heart International), academia, federal and state agencies (e.g., NOAA/NWS, CDC, FEMA, EPA, PR Department of Public Health) and members of the interdisciplinary research team and their collaborators (University of Puerto Rico, University of Arizona, Tulane University, IRI, CIMH, University of Colorado).
Public health concerns influenced by weather and climate addressed by the workshop included respiratory diseases (e.g., asthma, COPD), heat stress-related diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease), vector-borne diseases (e.g., dengue, Zika), and mental health. Stakeholders expressed a need for better access to tailored information for decision-making in public health and expressed a desire for disease surveillance and warning systems to be supported with climate information, for example, by establishing climate thresholds for disease transmission and outbreaks. Participants identified a suite of specific information needs that will be considered as candidates for the co-production of knowledge and decision support resources by the research team and their collaborators in the climate and public health communities. One example of an area being explored by the group is to augment, test, and/or provide feedback on existing heat-related tools developed in the medical community to support existing community efforts.
This activity represents one of six grants awarded by IRAP in FY 18 which are designed to inform planning and prevention focused on weather and climate-sensitive health risks to U.S. economic, development, scientific, and safety interests at home and abroad.
Author: Guido, Zack; Lichtveld M.; Wahid, F.A.; Sherman, M.; Duncan, B.; Henderson, J.; Mason, S.; Méndez-Lázaro, P.; Santos- Hernandez, J.; Allen, T.
Published Date: 2019-06
Topic (s): Public Health and Severe Weather
Publication Type: Workshop Report
Download: PuertoRico_WorkshopReport_20190328.pdf
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Lisa Vaughan Program Manager, International Research and Applications Project (IRAP) P: 1 (301) 734-1277 F: 1 (301) 713-0518 E: lisa.vaughan@noaa.gov
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Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather.