Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

The report captures two days of plenary presentations as well as small breakout group discussions, and provides recommendations for future research directions for ESSM and partners.

During this transformation, a cyclone's wind and precipitation area increases in size, and the storm may produce large waves and swell as it accelerates forward, which are important changes to understand and predict for risk assessment

Using climate projections to assess climate change risks remains challenging, in part due to the large associated uncertainties, such as those for extreme events.

With the United States experiencing the largest number of annual tornado events of any country, it’s critical for atmospheric studies to continue to enhance tornado outlooks and projections for our country. New research accepted for publication, funded by the MAPP Program, shows that different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation’s (MJO) — an eastward moving tropical rainfall pattern — global trek can produce more or less favorable conditions for U.S. tornado activity.

A paper just published in Science Advances, funded by the MAPP Program, identified a key climate pattern responsible, in part, for large uncertainties in projections of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). The SASM is the strongest component of the global monsoon system and contributes about 80% of South Asia’s annual rainfall and provides the water supply for more than a billion people.