Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force helped advance NOAA’s and the nation’s capability to model and predict sources of predictability between weather and seasonal timescales.

A recent study bridges observations and modeling, and shows a way to make improvements to the observational instruments climate scientists rely on to study global circulation patterns. 

While drought is commonly defined by precipitation and runoff deficits, the study challenges this understanding by proposing a new definition: anthropogenic drought. Within human‐water systems, drought must be defined and understood as the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human‐induced changes, the authors say.

“There has always been natural variability in drought events around the world, but our research shows the clear human influence on drying, specifically from anthropogenic aerosols, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases,” said lead author Felicia Chiang from the University of California, Irvine. 

New research highlights the application of reanalysis products, including the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CRv3), to understanding coastal hazards in a changing climate.