Drought Task Force Year 1 Meeting

• The Drought Task Force work plan for Year 2 and a vision for Year 3.
• A report/paper on current Drought Task Force drought monitoring and prediction research and near-term drought research gaps/directions.

Thu October 25 – Joint Drought Task Force Meeting/Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop (Open)

07:00 – 08:00 Continental Breakfast Location: Salons 3, 4, 6

Drought Monitoring and Date Assimilation
Chair: Annarita Mariotti

08:00 – 08:20 Siegfried Schubert (Invited) An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force
08:20 – 08:40 Jesse Meng A Retrospective GLDAS for Improved Global Land Surface Climatology
08:40 – 09:00 Christa Peters-Lidard The Impact of Soil Moisture and Snow Assimilation on NLDAS Drought Metrics
09:00 – 09:20 Martha C. Anderson Use of remotely sensed evapotranspiration maps for monitoring drought impacts at field to continental scales
09:20 – 09:40 Amir AghaKouchak A Multi-Index Standardized Drought Monitoring and Prediction Framework

09:40 – 10:00 Morning Break (Atrium)

Drought and hydroclimate prediction
Chair: Christa Peters-Lidard

10:00 – 10:20 Xin Zhong Liang (Invited) CWRF Optimized Physics Ensemble Modeling to Advance U.S. Drought Forecasts
10:20 – 10:40 Eric Wood Assessment of the NMME system for the prediction of Drought over the NIDIS test beds
10:40 – 11:00 Kingtse Mo Do Climate Forecast System (CFSV2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction?
11:00 – 11:20 Randy Koster Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling
11:20 – 11:40 R.W. Arritt Precipitation intensity in downscaled seasonal forecasts
11:40 – 12:00 Jin-Ho Yoon Comparison of regional downscaling methods: dynamic downscaling using MRED vs. statistical downscaling methods

12:00 – 01:20 Lunch (On Your Own)

Physical mechanisms and case studies for extreme hydroclimate events
Chair: Siegfried Schubert

01:20 – 01:40 Martin Hoerling Is a Transition to Semi-Permanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the Great Plains?
01:40 – 02:00 Charles Jones A case study of predictability of extreme precipitation over the CONUS and the MJO
02:00 – 02:20 Wenhong Li Summer precipitation variability over the Southeastern United States analyzed from atmospheric moisture budget
02:20 – 02:40 Rong Fu Assessing Future Changes of Drought over South-Central United States in Supporting Regional Water Resource Planning
02:40 – 03:00 Ben Kirtman Predictability of 2006-07 Drought in Southeast US

03:00 – 03:20 Afternoon Break (Atrium)

Drought Information and Services
Chair: Kingtse Mo

03:20 – 03:40 Anthony Artusa (Invited) Current and future application of tools for Seasonal Drought Prediction
03:40 – 04:00 Michael Hayes (Invited) The Role of Monitoring and Prediction within Drought Risk Management
04:00 – 04:20 Kelly Redmond (Invited) The WestWide Drought Tracker: Drought Monitoring at Fine Spatial Scales
04:20 – 04:40 Nolan Doesken (Invited) Enhanced drought monitoring and early warning activities in the Upper Colorado River Basin
04:40 – 05:00 Gregg Garfin (Invited) Drought Communication in the Southwest
05:00 – 05:20 Mark Svoboda (Invited) Drought as a focal point for climate services: Tools of the trade at the National Drought Mitigation Center

06:00 – 08:00 Posters and social event (Salon 2, cash wine bar and complimentary refreshments)

Fri October 26 – Drought Task Force Meeting (By Invitation)
Legends Room
Programmatic Introduction

08:00 – 08:15 Annarita Mariotti Introduction and MAPP Program perspective
08:15 – 08:30 Chad McNutt NIDIS Program activities and future directions

Challenges in drought monitoring and prediction: the case of the 2011-2012 U.S. Drought
Chair: Mike Hayes

08:30 – 09:00 A service perspective
(Short presentations by Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Gregg Garfin, Rebecca Smith)
09:00 – 09:30 A research perspective
(Short presentations by Randy Koster and Marty Hoerling)

09:30 – 10:00 Coffee Break

Drought Task Force plans and future drought research directions
Rapporteur: Dan Barrie

10:00 – 11:15 Drought Task Force Planning: presentation of proposed plan and open discussion
Siegfried Schubert, Kingtse Mo, Christa Peters-Lidard, Andy Wood
11:15 – 12:30 Near-term drought research gaps/directions: presentation of pre-meeting input and open discussion
Moderator: Eric Wood
12:30 Meeting close (Annarita Mariotti)