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 A Science Assessment by a Subgroup of the Drought Task Force 2 led by Marty Hoerling


Leadership/Members

Christa Peters-lidard (Lead), NASA Goddard Flight Center

Pierre Gentine (Co-Lead), Columbia University

Michael Barlage (Co-Lead), UCAR

Dennis Lettenmaier (Co-Lead), University of California Los Angeles 

Mission

The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program organizes the Drought Task Force to coordinate the activities of researchers supported through the MAPP/NIDIS Fiscal Year 2017 grant competition "Advancing drought understanding, monitoring and prediction”. The goal of this research initiative is to advance the understanding of drought causes and predictability as well as drought modeling, prediction, and monitoring capabilities. This initiative builds on two previous MAPP Drought Task Force efforts, and decades of preceding research on drought, hydroclimate, and related modeling.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP/NIDIS-funded investigators from universities, NOAA, and other Federal centers and laboratories. Membership in the Task Force can also include invited scientists and other individuals from across the community with interest and expertise in Drought Task Force research areas.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for PIs to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate. Via the Task Force, PIs share new datasets, methodologies, and results. There can also be emergent opportunities to synthesize collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, or journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. Preceding iterations of the Drought Task Force have a rich history of leading such activities. The Task Force also facilitates collaboration with other relevant activities inside and outside of NOAA, including international Drought research and activities.

The Drought Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2017.

Terms of Reference

  • MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and three co-leads for the Task Force.
  • The Task Force leads, with input from the broad Task Force membership, provide scientific leadership and establish activities for the Task Force. MAPP Program management provides programmatic guidance on Task Force activities as needed, working with the leads.
  • All PIs supported through the NIDIS/MAPP fiscal year 2017 drought competition are expected to participate in the Task Force as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
  • Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.

 Other Links

Research Objectives

In the following we describe the issues underlying our key research objectives in more detail.

News & Events

New NOAA Report: Exceptional Southwest Drought Exacerbated by Human-Caused Warming 29 September 2021

New NOAA Report: Exceptional Southwest Drought Exacerbated by Human-Caused Warming

According to the report, the drought caused roughly $11.4–$23 billion in economic losses in 2020—including impacts from associated wildfires. Economic losses for 2021 will also be substantial, and the drought is expected to continue at least into next year.

Study: Dry Future Likely Unavoidable for Southwest, But Reducing Greenhouse Gases Can Still Help 8 September 2021

Study: Dry Future Likely Unavoidable for Southwest, But Reducing Greenhouse Gases Can Still Help

For the past two decades, the southwestern United States has been desiccated by one of the most severe long-term droughts—or ‘megadroughts’—of the last 1,200 years. And now, scientists say the risk of similar extreme megadroughts and severe single-year droughts will increase in the future as Earth’s temperature continues to rise, according to a new study in Earth’s Future.

Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions are Lengthening and Intensifying Droughts 18 May 2021

Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions are Lengthening and Intensifying Droughts

CPO-funded study shows human-caused boost to drying in Americas, Africa, and Asia

“There has always been natural variability in drought events around the world, but our research shows the clear human influence on drying, specifically from anthropogenic aerosols, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases,” said lead author Felicia Chiang from the University of California, Irvine. 

Tackling the challenges of a drier, hotter, more fire-prone future 11 April 2021

Tackling the challenges of a drier, hotter, more fire-prone future

In a new EOS Opinion Article, MAPP Drought Task Force leaders Rong Fu, Andrew Hoell, Justin Mankin, and Isla Simpson, working with NIDIS staff member Amanda Sheffield, describe the disastrous impacts droughts, heat waves and fires have globally. They also highlight new MAPP- and NIDIS-funded research that tackles the challenges of a drier, hotter, more fire-prone future.
Drought Task Force Provides Rapid Response to Worst U.S. Drought Since 2013 26 January 2021

Drought Task Force Provides Rapid Response to Worst U.S. Drought Since 2013

The Drought Task Force’s rapid response will help us understand the ongoing drought’s causes, how our science is helping us understand the drought, to what extent climate change is playing a role, and how the event may evolve.

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Contact

Dr. Annarita Mariotti
MAPP Program Director, on detail to EOP/OSTP
P: 301-734-1237
E: annarita.mariotti@noaa.gov

Dr. Daniel Barrie
Acting MAPP Program Director
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Courtney Byrd
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 301-734-1257
E: courtney.byrd@noaa.gov

Wenfei Ni
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 
E: wenfei.ni@noaa.gov

Nicole Rucker
Knauss Fellow

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