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MPTF_2pagerThis two-pager introduces the MPTF goals and highlights example research projects. Click on the image to learn more...

Members

Relevant MAPP Program PIs and selected additional invitees.

Mark Merrifield (Lead), University of Hawai’i at Mānoa

Antonietta Capotondi (Co-Lead), NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Michael Jacox (Co-Lead), University of California, Santa Cruz

Mission

The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Marine Prediction Task Force (MPTF) to coordinate the activities of researchers supported through the MAPP-National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Office of Science and Technology (S&T) Fiscal Year 2017 grant competition “Research to explore seasonal prediction of coastal high water levels and changing living marine resources”. The goal of this research initiative is to help U.S. coastal communities and economies anticipate the threat of climate-related hazards by developing NOAA’s capability to produce relevant seasonal marine predictions for regions along the U.S. coast. This initiative is a substantial contribution to NOAA’s National Ocean Service goals of advancing coastal resilience and intelligence priorities, as well as the NMFS goal of increasing the production, delivery, and use of climate-related information in fisheries management and protected species conservation.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP/S&T-funded principal investigators (PIs) from universities and NOAA and other Federal centers and laboratories. Members of the Task Force also include invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in seasonal predictability and prediction for marine applications.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for PIs to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate. Via the Task Force, PIs share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, or journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force also facilitates collaboration with other relevant activities inside and outside of NOAA.

The Marine Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2017.

Projects

For the abstracts of projects funded from MAPP's FY17 competition, please click here.

Marine Prediction Task Force Terms of Reference

  • MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and two co-leads for the Task Force.
  • The Task Force leads, with input from the broad Task Force membership, provide scientific leadership and establish activities for the Task Force. MAPP Program management provides programmatic guidance on Task Force activities as needed, working with the leads.
  • All PIs supported through the MAPP-S&T Fiscal Year 2017 coastal high water levels and changes in living marine resources competition are expected to participate in the Task Force as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
  • Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.

MAPP Task Force Concept and Terms of Reference

News & Events

When noise becomes signal 27 July 2018

When noise becomes signal

Unusual California Precipitation Over Last Two Winters Could Have Been Predicted

A new study shows that though seasonal forecasts failed to predict the unusual California preciptation during the winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17, forecasts issued a month ahead -- within the subseasonal timescale and much further ahead than a normal weather forecast -- could have accurately predicted the abnormal winter rain. 

Ready for summer heat? Study finds new primary driver of extreme Texas heat waves 28 June 2018

Ready for summer heat? Study finds new primary driver of extreme Texas heat waves

A team of scientists found that a strengthened change in ocean temperatures from west to east (or gradient) in the tropical Pacific during the preceding winter is the main driver of more frequent heat waves in Texas. 

The Experts Weigh In: How To Close the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions 26 March 2018

The Experts Weigh In: How To Close the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions

Three leaders from the weather and climate research communities share their perspective on how best to address the subseasonal to seasonal prediction challenge in a new open-access paper in Nature Partner Journals – Climate and Atmospheric Science. The authors include Annarita Mariotti, Director of the NOAA MAPP Program, as well as Paolo Ruti and Michel Rixen, who coordinate research for the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and World Climate Research Program (WCRP), respectively.

New research offers potential to predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks ahead 20 February 2018

New research offers potential to predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks ahead

A new study in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science describes a breakthrough in accurately predicting atmospheric river behavior several weeks ahead.

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out 19 January 2018

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out

A new study says that teleconnections with certain phases of a recurring tropical rainfall pattern could extend predictions up to 20-25 days in advance. The authors’ findings provide guidance on which tropical conditions might lead to improved forecasts beyond our current capability – and more time to prepare for extreme events.

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ABOUT OUR ORGANIZATION

Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2017, the United States experienced a record-tying 16 climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 362 lives, and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted, costing more than $306 billion. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.

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