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MPTF_2pagerThis two-pager introduces the MPTF goals and highlights example research projects. Click on the image to learn more...

Members

Relevant MAPP Program PIs and selected additional invitees.

Mark Merrifield (Lead), University of Hawai’i at Mānoa

Antonietta Capotondi (Co-Lead), NOAA/ESRL/PSD

Michael Jacox (Co-Lead), University of California, Santa Cruz

Mission

The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Marine Prediction Task Force (MPTF) to coordinate the activities of researchers supported through the MAPP-National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Office of Science and Technology (S&T) Fiscal Year 2017 grant competition “Research to explore seasonal prediction of coastal high water levels and changing living marine resources”. The goal of this research initiative is to help U.S. coastal communities and economies anticipate the threat of climate-related hazards by developing NOAA’s capability to produce relevant seasonal marine predictions for regions along the U.S. coast. This initiative is a substantial contribution to NOAA’s National Ocean Service goals of advancing coastal resilience and intelligence priorities, as well as the NMFS goal of increasing the production, delivery, and use of climate-related information in fisheries management and protected species conservation.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP/S&T-funded principal investigators (PIs) from universities and NOAA and other Federal centers and laboratories. Members of the Task Force also include invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in seasonal predictability and prediction for marine applications.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for PIs to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate. Via the Task Force, PIs share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, or journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force also facilitates collaboration with other relevant activities inside and outside of NOAA.

The Marine Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2017.

Projects

For the abstracts of projects funded from MAPP's FY17 competition, please click here.

Marine Prediction Task Force Terms of Reference

  • MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and two co-leads for the Task Force.
  • The Task Force leads, with input from the broad Task Force membership, provide scientific leadership and establish activities for the Task Force. MAPP Program management provides programmatic guidance on Task Force activities as needed, working with the leads.
  • All PIs supported through the MAPP-S&T Fiscal Year 2017 coastal high water levels and changes in living marine resources competition are expected to participate in the Task Force as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
  • Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.

MAPP Task Force Concept and Terms of Reference

News & Events

Bridging the Weather-Climate Prediction Skill Gap with a Multi-Model Experiment 18 December 2019

Bridging the Weather-Climate Prediction Skill Gap with a Multi-Model Experiment

Researchers have for years been working to tackle the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction problem to improve forecasts. The Subseasonal Experiment, SubX, is an interagency research-to-operations project designed to help tackle this problem. The results of the project were recently published in BAMS. 

MAPP Program efforts helped advance understanding of tropical cyclone subseasonal variability and predictability 2 October 2019

MAPP Program efforts helped advance understanding of tropical cyclone subseasonal variability and predictability

A new review paper describes how MAPP-funded and organized work has contributed to recent progress in understanding tropical cyclones.

MAPP’s S2S Prediction Task Force Announces AGU Special Collection on S2S Research 28 June 2019

MAPP’s S2S Prediction Task Force Announces AGU Special Collection on S2S Research

Since 2016, the Subseaonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Task Force has been focusing efforts on bridging the skill gap between weather and seasonal prediction lead times. Publication of this special collection represents an important milestone for the group.

Bridging the Weather-to-Climate Prediction Gap 27 February 2019

Bridging the Weather-to-Climate Prediction Gap

An EOS project update on the MAPP S2S Prediction Task Force has been published. A task force of researchers set out to bridge the gap between the 2-week weather forecast and long-term climate predictions; their findings could help in forecasting the likelihood of extreme events.
When noise becomes signal 27 July 2018

When noise becomes signal

Unusual California Precipitation Over Last Two Winters Could Have Been Predicted

A new study shows that though seasonal forecasts failed to predict the unusual California preciptation during the winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17, forecasts issued a month ahead -- within the subseasonal timescale and much further ahead than a normal weather forecast -- could have accurately predicted the abnormal winter rain. 

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FY20-Footprint

Contact

Dr. Annarita Mariotti
MAPP Program Director
P: 301-734-1237
E: annarita.mariotti@noaa.gov

Dr. Daniel Barrie
MAPP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Amara Huddleston*
MAPP Communications & Program Analyst
P: 301-734-1218
E: amara.huddleston@noaa.gov

Courtney Byrd*
MAPP Program Assistant
P: 301-734-1257
E: courtney.byrd@noaa.gov

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