Mission

The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force to advance NOAA’s and the Nation’s capability to model and predict sources of S2S predictability. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to help close the gap in prediction skill and products between traditional weather and seasonal lead times.

The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP-supported scientists from universities, research laboratories, and NOAA centers and laboratories funded through the fiscal year 2016 MAPP–National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Technology Integration (STI) grant competition "Research to Advance Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena". Members of the Task Force also include MAPP-funded scientists participating in the Subseasonal Experiment, SubX, an interagency research project to test subseasonal prediction models for NWS operations selected via a MAPP-NOAA Climate Test Bed competition, as well as invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in the S2S prediction problem.

Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for MAPP-supported PIs to share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force collaborates and coordinates with ongoing national and international S2S prediction, research, and applications efforts, such as the NOAA NWS/STI Weeks 3-4: Improving Mid-range Weather Outlooks Initiative, the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface Panel, and World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project.

The S2S Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2016.

Key research questions and activities (two-page pdf); prepared March 2017

 

Members

➜ Relevant MAPP Program PIs and selected additional invitees.

Elizabeth Barnes (Lead), Colorado State University
Edmund Chang (Co-Lead), Stony Brook University
Paul Dirmeyer (Co-Lead), George Mason University/COLA
Andrea Lang (Co-Lead), University at Albany
Kathleen Pegion (Co-Lead), George Mason University

To view the full Participants list, please visit the Participants page.

Projects

For the abstracts of S2S and SubX projects funded from MAPP's FY16 competitions, please click here.

S2S Prediction Task Force Terms of Reference

  • The MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and four co-leads for the Task Force.
  • MAPP Program management oversees Task Force activities, working with the leads.
  • All PIs supported through the MAPP FY16 S2S research competition are expected to participate in the Task Force, as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
  • Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.

MAPP Task Force Concept and Terms of Reference

News & Events

Ready for summer heat? Study finds new primary driver of extreme Texas heat waves 28 June 2018

Ready for summer heat? Study finds new primary driver of extreme Texas heat waves

A team of scientists found that a strengthened change in ocean temperatures from west to east (or gradient) in the tropical Pacific during the preceding winter is the main driver of more frequent heat waves in Texas. 

The Experts Weigh In: How To Close the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions 26 March 2018

The Experts Weigh In: How To Close the Gap Between Weather and Climate Predictions

Three leaders from the weather and climate research communities share their perspective on how best to address the subseasonal to seasonal prediction challenge in a new open-access paper in Nature Partner Journals – Climate and Atmospheric Science. The authors include Annarita Mariotti, Director of the NOAA MAPP Program, as well as Paolo Ruti and Michel Rixen, who coordinate research for the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and World Climate Research Program (WCRP), respectively.

New research offers potential to predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks ahead 20 February 2018

New research offers potential to predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks ahead

A new study in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science describes a breakthrough in accurately predicting atmospheric river behavior several weeks ahead.

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out 19 January 2018

Global rainfall pattern could offer prediction skill three weeks out

A new study says that teleconnections with certain phases of a recurring tropical rainfall pattern could extend predictions up to 20-25 days in advance. The authors’ findings provide guidance on which tropical conditions might lead to improved forecasts beyond our current capability – and more time to prepare for extreme events.

NOAA and partners release database for research to bridge weather to climate forecast gap 17 October 2017

NOAA and partners release database for research to bridge weather to climate forecast gap

Two new datasets, funded in part by NOAA Research’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, now provide easy public access to 60 terabytes of climate forecasts containing predictions of rainfall, temperature, winds and other variables at the subseasonal level (two weeks to two months ahead).

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ABOUT OUR ORGANIZATION

Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2017, the United States experienced a record-tying 16 climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 362 lives, and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted, costing more than $306 billion. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.