The OAR Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program has organized the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force to advance NOAA’s and the Nation’s capability to model and predict sources of S2S predictability. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to help close the gap in prediction skill and products between traditional weather and seasonal lead times.
The core membership of the Task Force is comprised of MAPP-supported scientists from universities, research laboratories, and NOAA centers and laboratories funded through the fiscal year 2016 MAPP–National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Technology Integration (STI) grant competition "Research to Advance Prediction of Subseasonal to Seasonal Phenomena". Members of the Task Force also include MAPP-funded scientists participating in the Subseasonal Experiment, SubX, an interagency research project to test subseasonal prediction models for NWS operations selected via a MAPP-NOAA Climate Test Bed competition, as well as invited scientists from across the community with interest and expertise in the S2S prediction problem.
Through monthly teleconferences, the Task Force provides a formal mechanism for MAPP-supported PIs to share new datasets, methodologies, and results, as well as to ultimately synthesize their collective efforts through technical reports, review articles, journal special collections and engage with the rest of the community via workshops and meeting sessions. The Task Force collaborates and coordinates with ongoing national and international S2S prediction, research, and applications efforts, such as the NOAA NWS/STI Weeks 3-4: Improving Mid-range Weather Outlooks Initiative, the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface Panel, and World Meteorological Organization Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project.
The S2S Prediction Task Force is a three-year effort starting September 2016.
➜ Key research questions and activities (two-page pdf); prepared March 2017
➜ Relevant MAPP Program PIs and selected additional invitees.
Elizabeth Barnes (Lead), Colorado State University
Edmund Chang (Co-Lead), Stony Brook University
Paul Dirmeyer (Co-Lead), George Mason University/COLA
Andrea Lang (Co-Lead), University at Albany
Kathleen Pegion (Co-Lead), George Mason University
To view the full Participants list, please visit the Participants page.
For the abstracts of S2S and SubX projects funded from MAPP's FY16 competitions, please click here.
S2S Prediction Task Force Terms of Reference
- The MAPP Program Management has selected one lead scientist and four co-leads for the Task Force.
- MAPP Program management oversees Task Force activities, working with the leads.
- All PIs supported through the MAPP FY16 S2S research competition are expected to participate in the Task Force, as described in their proposals. Otherwise, participation in the Task Force is by invitation.
- Most of the Task Force work will be conducted remotely via telecons or virtual meetings, or through meetings of opportunity.
MAPP Task Force Concept and Terms of Reference
Image: Cover photo for AGU S2S Prediction Task Force Special Collection. Credit: Andrea Lang (U. of Albany)
An AGU special collection
titled “Bridging Weather and Climate: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction” is being published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres and Geophysical Research Letters. This special collection is organized by the S2S Prediction Task Force leads and was open to the entire international S2S community until June 30, 2019. To date, the collection includes 25 published research papers.