Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

The Drought Task Force’s rapid response will help us understand the ongoing drought’s causes, how our science is helping us understand the drought, to what extent climate change is playing a role, and how the event may evolve.

Severe droughts are one of the costliest natural disasters in the United States, but the current level of skill in forecasting drought onset, development, and demise is limited.

In order to improve model predictions, an accurate characterization of the uncertainty in the model state, i.e soil moisture, is critical. With droughts becoming more severe and frequent, it’s imperative for researchers to study and improve drought monitoring.

Identifying rapidly evolving and severe “flash drought’ conditions is especially useful for mitigating crop losses, monitor vegetation health, and provide crucial information for increased fire risk.

A new report from the NOAA Drought Task Force, “Research to Advance National Drought Monitoring and Prediction Capabilities,” highlights the crucial role NOAA research plays in advancing our ability to prepare for and react to drought.