Earth System Science and Modeling

CPO's Earth System Science and Modeling (ESSM) division supports research to advance understanding of the Earth system.

To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts--so people can protect themselves and their property--we need to understand global patterns and climate variability and change. And to help manage and conserve coastal resources and marine ecosystems, we need to understand and monitor our oceans and coasts.

The ESSM Division is actively building the global and regional scale understanding needed to improve predictions. The program coordinates an array of researchers from federal agencies, national labs, and universities, focusing them on the most pressing climate research necessary to advance NOAA's prediction and other services and applications.

The ESSM Division comprises four programs: Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP), Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP), and Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, & Climate (AC4), and Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM).

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ESSM News

Can Machine Learning Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts? 16 June 2021

Can Machine Learning Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasts?

Recent research showcases how machine learning methods can help reduce errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to prevent damages and loss of life.

Millenia-long Temperature Dataset Reconstructed Using Tree Rings 3 June 2021

Millenia-long Temperature Dataset Reconstructed Using Tree Rings

This COM-funded study developed an improved paelo-temperature reconstruction dataset for the Northern Hemisphere using tree ring proxy data. 

Using Models to Test the Physics of Observational Instruments in the Atlantic Ocean 3 June 2021

Using Models to Test the Physics of Observational Instruments in the Atlantic Ocean

A recent study bridges observations and modeling, and shows a way to make improvements to the observational instruments climate scientists rely on to study global circulation patterns. 

Study Proposes New Way to Define Drought, Capturing Natural Variations and Human Actions 18 May 2021

Study Proposes New Way to Define Drought, Capturing Natural Variations and Human Actions

While drought is commonly defined by precipitation and runoff deficits, the study challenges this understanding by proposing a new definition: anthropogenic drought. Within human‐water systems, drought must be defined and understood as the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human‐induced changes, the authors say.

Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions are Lengthening and Intensifying Droughts 18 May 2021

Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Emissions are Lengthening and Intensifying Droughts

CPO-funded study shows human-caused boost to drying in Americas, Africa, and Asia

“There has always been natural variability in drought events around the world, but our research shows the clear human influence on drying, specifically from anthropogenic aerosols, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases,” said lead author Felicia Chiang from the University of California, Irvine. 

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Contact the ESSM Division Chief


Chief, Earth System Science and Modeling Division

P: 301-734-1185
E: jin.huang@noaa.gov

Contact

Dr. Daniel Barrie
Acting MAPP Program Director
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Courtney Byrd
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 301-734-1257
E: courtney.byrd@noaa.gov

Wenfei Ni
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 
E: wenfei.ni@noaa.gov

Dr. Annarita Mariotti
MAPP Program Director, on detail to EOP/OSTP
P: 301-734-1237
E: annarita.mariotti@noaa.gov

Contact

Dr. Daniel Barrie
MAPP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1256
E: daniel.barrie@noaa.gov

Alison Stevens*
MAPP Program Specialist
P: 301-734-1218
E: alison.stevens@noaa.gov

Contact

Dr. Sandy Lucas
CVP Program Manager
P: 301-734-1253
E: sandy.lucas@noaa.gov


Contact

Dr. Monika Kopacz (UCAR)
Program manager, Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle and Climate (AC4)
P: (301) 734-1208
E: monika.kopacz@noaa.gov

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