Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most powerful natural hazards in the
Research funded by the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program, recently published in Science Advances, evaluated the factors affecting seasonal variability in northwestern Pacific typhoon peak intensity. The authors of the study found that low-latitude northwestern Pacific upper ocean temperatures establish how rapidly typhoons intensify, and central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures govern the length of time that typhoons intensify. Together, these factors were found to influence the seasonal average peak intensity of northwestern Pacific typhoons. Applying a moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), the study projected an 14% increase in average seasonal peak typhoon intensity due to upper ocean warming in the northwestern Pacific by 2100.
W. Mei, S.P. Xie, F. Primeau, J.C. McWilliams, and C. Pasquero. 2015. Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures. Science Advances. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500014. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/4/e1500014-0