El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven variations in sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific play a major role in seasonal rainfall changes in the United States and in driving weather and climate around the world. However, little is known about how ENSO will respond to anthropogenic changes in Earth’s climate.

The discrepancies between simulations and reconstructions obstructs our ability to gain a better understanding of climate from these natural experiments.

In a recent paper published in Science, authors analyze new paleoclimate data in the form of coral samples from the Tropical Pacific. These include a consistent proxy record for variables such as sea surface temperature.

The study highlights scientists’ ability to indirectly measure large scale global processes through observation platforms that confirm models and shows how anthropogenic effects (e.g. greenhouse gases and ozone) interact to impact large scale global circulation systems.

Extreme temperature events threaten vulnerable populations with limited access to shelter and water and/or with pre-existing health conditions.