Two new studies that hint at the tantalizing possibility that persistent drought conditions could be predictable one or more years in advance, using the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean’s slow changes in temperature.

A new study by Hye-Mi Kim (Stony Brook University) and other researchers has found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which changes slowly and is usually predictable many months in advance, affects how frequently atmospheric rivers make landfall along the western U.S. coast.

A new NOAA report describes high-priority recommendations to improve the way NOAA develops and operates models.

This study evaluated models that skillfully simulated the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is associated with extreme events in the United States.