Arctic change is generally discussed with average changes, but extreme events and changes to extremes are felt the most by humans and ecosystems.

This is the first North America-focused study to investigate how well and how consistently reanalysis datasets identify extreme temperature events.

Analysis of the last millennium reanalysis climate reconstruction shows a clear connection between Southwest drought and La Niña sea-surface temperature patterns. However, this pattern only explains a small part of the variability associated with past U.S. droughts.

Researchers highlight the significance of examining trends in large-scale weather patterns using these new indicators since they reflect near surface conditions, are key drivers of extra-tropical weather, and are important regulators of human comfort for approximately half of the world’s population.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven variations in sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific play a major role in seasonal rainfall changes in the United States and in driving weather and climate around the world. However, little is known about how ENSO will respond to anthropogenic changes in Earth’s climate.