For the past two decades, the southwestern United States has been desiccated by one of the most severe long-term droughts—or ‘megadroughts’—of the last 1,200 years. And now, scientists say the risk of similar extreme megadroughts and severe single-year droughts will increase in the future as Earth’s temperature continues to rise, according to a new study in Earth’s Future.

The study provides insights that could potentially extend the warning lead time of cold extremes in the United States, Canada, and Asia.

Since the Colorado River is the southwest United States’ most important surface water source, the findings have important implications for managing this resource in the face of a warming climate

The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Task Force helped advance NOAA’s and the nation’s capability to model and predict sources of predictability between weather and seasonal timescales.

“There has always been natural variability in drought events around the world, but our research shows the clear human influence on drying, specifically from anthropogenic aerosols, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases,” said lead author Felicia Chiang from the University of California, Irvine.