North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) NACSP Focus Area will improve Operational day 1-16 predictions for North America by combining different Ensemble Prediction Systems into a super Ensemble. Objectives of this activity are:

  • Ensemble forecast system comparison
  • Exchange higher resolution (0.5 degree) ensemble forecast data
  • Development/improvement of common post process for multi-model ensemble
  • Development and assessment specialized products useful for decision makers (e.g. probabilistic forecasts)
  • Expand the Data exchange to the Regional Ensemble Systems

Relevant Links:
U.S. NOAA, NWS National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP)


Climate Program Office
1315 East-West Hwy, Suite 1100
Silver Spring, MD 20910


Americans’ health, security and economic wellbeing are tied to climate and weather. Every day, we see communities grappling with environmental challenges due to unusual or extreme events related to climate and weather. In 2017, the United States experienced a record-tying 16 climate- and weather-related disasters where overall costs reached or exceeded $1 billion. Combined, these events claimed 362 lives, and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted, costing more than $306 billion. Businesses, policy leaders, resource managers and citizens are increasingly asking for information to help them address such challenges.