Tropical cyclones (TCs), specifically hurricanes, are among the most deadly and costly disasters facing the U.S. each year. Global climate models suggest that they may become less frequent but more intense in the future. In a new Science Advances study, a research team from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) shifts the focus from trends in overall hurricane activity to focus on year-to-year changes. The results show that this interannual variability has already increased and project a 36 percent increase by the middle of the 21st century. That means there will be larger swings between extremely active and inactive seasons in the future. This projected shift calls for new ways of interpreting seasonal outlooks and redefining thresholds for what constitutes active or inactive seasons, which could improve emergency preparedness.
Lead author Hosmay Lopez of AOML is supported by a grant from the Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program aimed at improved projections of 21st-century climate over the United States.
For more information, contact Clara Deck.