Improving predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic allows for better forecasting of tropical cyclones. A new study published in Science Advances reveals how high-resolution climate models have improved SST prediction accuracy. These models better represent patterns of temperature changes across the Atlantic and the interactions between wind, evaporation, and sea temperature. Improvements in how the models simulate surface wind responses to SST changes was key to enhancing prediction skills.
Past models struggled with representing these patterns, hindering the reliability of SST prediction and tropical cyclone forecasts. The more accurate SST predictions from high-resolution models can produce better forecasts for tropical cyclones over multiyear timescales. This improvement is particularly important for understanding and preparing for climate impacts in the Caribbean and other regions affected by tropical cyclone activity. This research group, from Texas A&M University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), received support from the Climate Program Office’s Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) program through a grant aimed at understanding the relative roles of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on global climate dynamics on multi-decade timescales.
For more information, contact Clara Deck.
