Scientist Alexey Fedorov of Yale University works to uncover mechanisms driving extreme weather patterns, focusing on the tropical Pacific and atmospheric circulation, with support from a grant from NOAA’s Climate Program Office. Fedorov worked with other researchers on two recent studies demonstrating new insights into climate patterns that drive extreme weather and can help improve predictions. One study, in the Journal of Climate, examines El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a Pacific-based climate pattern affecting global weather. Fedorov and other Yale scientists identified changes in the size and shape of wind patterns in the tropical Pacific that play a major role in intensifying ENSO with warmer atmospheric temperatures.
The next study, published in the National Science Review, focuses on shifts in the Hadley circulation, a global atmospheric system that can impact drought and rainfall. In this study, Fedorov and an international research team tested how warming in different ocean regions affects this overturning atmospheric circulation, finding a weakening and shift toward the poles with rising temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean, impacting rainfall patterns worldwide.
Together, these studies shed light on how different oceanic and atmospheric changes could drive extreme weather in a warming world. The ENSO study brings a new understanding of wind dynamics that may help predict more intense El Niño events. The Hadley circulation study points to ocean warming as a critical factor in expanding dry zones and affecting global rain belts. These findings strengthen our ability to anticipate climate impacts by approaching major Earth systems from different perspectives, and they offer a foundation for better forecasting and preparation for future hazards. The Climate Program Office’s Climate Observations and Monitoring (COM), Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP), and Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) programs support Fedorov’s work through a research initiative to understand the causes and mechanisms of extreme climate events.
For more information, contact Clara Deck.
