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Reassessing the Florida Current’s stability in climate change predictions

Map of Gulf of Mexico with sea surface temperature shown in color and land in brown. The Florida current is labeled.

A new study in Nature Communications revisited data from 40 years of monitoring the Florida Current using submarine cables and identified a needed correction related to changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. After applying the correction, the data showed that the Florida Current has remained stable, challenging assumptions that the Florida Current is weakening. The Florida Current is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) system, which scientists have proposed could be weakening due to human-caused climate change. This study suggests that if the AMOC is slowing overall, the effects are not yet detectable in the Florida Current. Continuing the long-term observations is crucial for understanding future climate trends.

Denis Volkov, a researcher at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and lead author of this new study, works toward a Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) program initiative to identify the state, mechanisms, and sources of climate predictability on the interannual to decadal timescale. This work to enhance the accuracy of ocean observations provides a more reliable foundation for climate predictions and simulations.

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For more information, contact Clara Deck.

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