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Targeting key atmospheric patterns to improve ocean forecasts and marine resource management

Map over North America with the California Current along the west coast highlighted.
California Current (Image credit: NOAA National Marine Ecosystem Status)

Accurate sea temperature forecasts are crucial for protecting marine ecosystems, especially in regions like the California Current, which supports vital fisheries and coastal resources. A new Journal of Climate study analyzed nearly 40 years of past predictions to understand why some forecasts in the California Current are more reliable than others. Researchers found that forecasts tend to remain reliable for longer periods, extending up to nearly a year, when they better represent key atmospheric drivers like sea level pressure and the Pacific meridional mode, a climate pattern that drives temperature and wind shifts between the northern and tropical Pacific. This insight provides a clear target for improving climate models and significantly enhancing our ability to predict ocean conditions, helping communities and policymakers respond to climate change and protect marine ecosystems.

The Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program funded this project as part of a marine ecosystems initiative in 2020. MAPP-funded researchers Michael Jacox of NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center and Michael Alexander of NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory work toward improving the utility of global climate forecasts for regional fisheries applications.

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For more information, contact Clara Deck.

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