Rapid Attribution
The rapid attribution information system will be usable in public and private sectors informing emergency managers, regional planners, and policy makers at all levels of government. This effort aligns with NOAA’s goal of building a Climate Ready Nation and Equity where climate information and services are made readily available to all, especially those in underserved areas. The system is powered by NOAA cooperative institutes, laboratories, and operational centers. This collaborative model enables a network of NOAA and affiliated scientists to effectively and consistently respond to public and media requests in the time immediately after, and weeks to months following an extreme event with the best available science and usable information.
What is a rapid attribution system?
The system will provide transparent and reproducible quantification and explanation of changing weather and climate hazards using a set of standard and well-documented methods and datasets.
Why does the nation need a rapid attribution system?
As our climate changes due to internal variability and the effects of human activities, extreme events such as extreme precipitation, hot and cold temperature extremes, and drought have increased in frequency and intensity in some cases. In the past, it was seen to be a near-impossible feat to isolate the direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change on any particular event (Easterling et al. 2016). However, our understanding of the science has led us to develop techniques that allow us to determine the impacts of both natural and anthropogenic effects on climate change, and do so in a timely manner. The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine released a report in 2016 that emphasized the need for attribution of extreme events within the context of climate change, and NOAA’s cutting edge research can directly meet this need.
How quickly will this system deliver information?
NOAA Rapid Attribution Team is working with NOAA climate service providers and other boundary organizations to get information out through their networks over a range of timescales.
–Quickly, during the event: Characterization of the event in a historical context
–Weeks to months following event: In depth risk assessment, causal analysis information
How can I receive this information?
The team intends to produce both plain language statements and more technical, experimental products for multiple audiences that build on the communications expertise of NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NOAA NCEI). The team is actively exploring collaborations with partners (such as NIHHIS) that may be interested in disseminating information to their networks. For more information contact the Rapid Attribution Team lead.
What is next for NOAA’s Rapid Attribution …?
As we improve on the science of rapid attribution, the goal is to perform attribution of other extremes such as wildfires, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and severe convective storms. Supporting the research that undergirds the delivery of this authoritative information to stakeholders and users is essential for building resilience in the aftermath of events, when communities are acutely focused on effective climate adaptation strategies.
Go to Changes in frequency of US temperature extremes: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory page for information on the Team’s experimental products.
Team Members
David R. Easterling, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information
Derek S. Arndt, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information
Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Arun Kumar, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Russell S. Vose, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information
Joseph Barsugli, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL
Carl J. Schreck, CISESS, NC State University and NOAA/NCEI
Tao Zhang, ESSIC, University of Maryland and NOAA/NCEI
David A. Coates, CISESS, NC State University
Kenneth E. Kunkel, CISESS, NC State University
John Uehling, North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (ncics.org)
Zachary Labe, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (noaa.gov)