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Scientists meet to improve predictions from weeks to seasons


Bridging the gap between short-term weather and long-term climate predictions has remained challenging for scientists, but public demand and promising research has focused NOAA’s attention on this prediction problem. In an effort to further progress, researchers from universities, NOAA and other labs and centers will meet to highlight recent efforts to develop skillful predictions for the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. Talks will focus on research using data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system combining forecasts from leading climate models. In addition, speakers will feature research using the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a two-year project combining multiple global models to produce real-time experimental forecasts and forecasts for past dates at lead times of 3-4 weeks. Specific presentations will cover such topics as representing physical processes in models, prediction skill, and combining multiple model forecasts for optimal skill. The NMME/SubX Science Meeting is supported by the OAR CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program and will be held September 13-15 at the National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Maryland. 

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