Kathleen Pegion, an associate professor and researcher at the University of Oklahoma, has been awarded funding for their climate projections project, “Bridging Predictions and Projections: Understanding Predictability from Initialized Multi-Year to Decadal Predictions for High-Impact Climate Futures.”
This scientific study dives into the relationship between North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability and its impact on summer weather patterns in the US. Specifically, Pigeon and her collaborators will explore whether the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) can serve as a reliable predictor for high-impact climate events, such as extreme heat, precipitation, drought, and coastal inundation over multi-year to decadal timescales. Pegion will also serve as a co-lead of the Projections Task Force, an initiative to enhance engagement across the climate projections teams. She brings deep expertise in research to operations and stakeholder-relevant products and services from her involvement with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and leading the Subseasonal EXperiment (SubX)
At the heart of this project is the hypothesis that harnessing initialized multi-year to decadal predictions, with a focus on North Atlantic SST, holds the key to more accurate forecasts for these impactful climate scenarios compared to uninitialized projections. Leveraging datasets from NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s SPEAR forecast system and the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2), the study will explore how the initialization of North Atlantic SST intricately influences the predictability of the NASH and subsequently shapes the landscape of extreme weather events in various US regions. The potential success of this endeavor could pave the way for the development of a real-time multi-year to decadal prediction system. Such a system would improve decision-making in the face of climate challenges and contribute significantly to our understanding of the complex mechanisms driving high-impact events, ultimately enhancing climate resilience.
Funding for this project is provided by the NOAA Climate Program Office, MAPP program.