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Home » Developing dynamically constrained projections of ENSO activity and associated coastal

Developing dynamically constrained projections of ENSO activity and associated coastal

U.S Affiliated Pacific Islands
U.S Affiliated Pacific Islands: Drought.gov

In response to the escalating risks and challenges posed by the evolving climate system, a new research project led by Fei-Fei Jin, a professor at University of Hawaii, aims to enhance multi-decadal projections of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its profound impacts on weather, climate, and coastal hazards. Recognizing the uncertainties in existing projections due to climate model deficiencies, the project proposes innovative methodologies to dynamically constrain ENSO projections. Three primary goals drive the research agenda: developing dynamically-constrained methodologies for ENSO projections, integrating refined ENSO projections with observed coastal conditions to project littoral risks for the Pacific rim, and extending risk projections to vulnerable Hawaiian and U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands.

The project leverages cutting-edge diagnostic tools and simulations from the GFDL SPEAR modeling system, among others, to establish viable approaches for multi-decadal projections of ENSO activity. By refining empirical relationships between ENSO and coastal hazardous conditions, the research aims to deliver both broad-scale and local-scale risk projections. This undertaking aligns seamlessly with the NOAA MAPP program mission, focusing on the most active and influential climate mode, ENSO, and its societal impacts on coastal hazard risks. The anticipated outcomes include improved NOAA Climate services, providing the public with reliable information on changing extreme weather and climate conditions in a warming future, while also contributing valuable insights and approaches to the broader scientific community.

Funding for this project is provided by the NOAA Climate Program Office, MAPP program.

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