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Home » Improving Climate Predictions by Rigorously Assessing Model Fidelity and Biases

Improving Climate Predictions by Rigorously Assessing Model Fidelity and Biases

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Timothy Delsole, a senior research scientist and professor at George Mason University, has been awarded funding for their climate projections project, “Improving Climate Predictions by Rigorously Assessing Model Fidelity and Biases.”

This new research study aims to enhance NOAA’s climate prediction capabilities by refining the GFDL’s SPEAR forecast system. Employing a novel statistical approach, the project addresses limitations in previous methods, accounting for spatial and temporal correlations. The focus is on assessing the accuracy of SPEAR’s variability modes, particularly El Nino and North Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperatures, crucial for predicting decadal variations and extremes. The research intends to provide bias corrections for SPEAR, enhancing its accuracy and enabling a more profound understanding of errors’ sources.

This project’s scientific significance lies in its response to NOAA’s call for improved Earth System predictions. Recognizing imperfections in current climate models is crucial to making progress, especially concerning El Nino and sea surface temperatures. The goal is not only to quantify SPEAR’s predictability but also to contribute to model development by addressing deficiencies, collaborating with GFDL scientists, and offering new statistical tests to enhance the Model Diagnostics Task Force package. The project is important for building resilience against future climate impacts by advancing the reliability of predictions over extended timescales.

Funding for this project is provided by the NOAA Climate Program Office, MAPP program.

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