A close-up satellite image of Hurricane Isabel taken on Sept. 15, 2003.
A new review paper describes how MAPP-funded and organized work has helped push the progress of understanding and predicting tropical cyclones on a subseasonal timescale. When extreme events, like tropical cyclones (TC), are likely to pose a threat to life and property it is important to have forecast systems in place for early warning. Unfortunately, most storm forecast systems can only predict an individual storm five days before it forms. Scientists have been working to extend this prediction time to the subseasonal range, about 10 to 30 days in advance. In order to predict TC activity at subseasonal timescales, you have to also understand the sources of predictability and variability. In the new Tropical Cyclone Research and Review paper, MAPP-funded PI Suzana Camargo and co-authors discuss the recent progress in understanding TC subseasonal variability, sources of predictability, and prediction at subseasonal timescales. MAPP-organized efforts have contributed largely to the progress in this field. Specifically, the efforts of the SubX (The Subseasonal Experiment) and S2S (Seasonal to Subseasonal) Task Forces have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of TCs on subseasonal timescales in multiple forecasting systems. The advancement of this research is also of strong interest to the private sector which seeks to have forecasts with three-four weeks warning for preparation and loss mitigation. Overall, it is important for the scientific community to continue making progress in understanding TC activity and predictability as it is beneficial across multiple sectors.
The Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program is a competitive research program in NOAA Research’s Climate Program Office. MAPP’s mission is to enhance the Nation’s and NOAA’s capability to understand, predict, and project variability and long-term changes in Earth’s system and mitigate human and economic impacts. To achieve its mission, MAPP supports foundational research, transition of research to applications, and engagement across other parts of NOAA, among partner agencies, and with the external research community. MAPP plays a crucial role in enabling national preparedness for extreme events like drought and longer-term climate changes.
For more information, please visit www.cpo.noaa.gov/MAPP.