Research supported by CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program has been published in Geophysical Research Letters. The study, titled “Spring Persistence, Transition and Resurgence of El Nino”, by Sang-Ki Lee at the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Florida, and coauthors, provides a comprehensive physical explanation of how two main types of El Niño events typically evolve from their onset to decay.
The study, which was published online on Dec. 15, 2014, reveals that an El Niño event that begins in spring or early summer tends to transition to a La Niña event by the next year.
In contrast, an El Niño event that begins in fall tends to persist through the following spring, thus setting the stage for another El Niño event in the next year. These findings are expected to help improve the seasonal prediction of U.S. precipitation, as U.S. precipitation patterns are strongly influenced by the occurrence of El Niño or La Niña events.
To view the full paper, visit: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062484/pdf