Severe weather activity can devastate communities and businesses, cause loss of life and property, and impact valuable infrastructure and natural resources. The number and severity of extreme weather and climate events in the U.S. has increased since 1980, and is projected to continue increasing. Currently, there are no severe thunderstorm forecasts beyond eight days produced by the operational community; however, modes of climate variability on timescales from weeks to months may influence severe weather activity and could be used to extend severe weather forecasts. Extended-range forecasts using coupled models could help reduce community vulnerability and improve resilience to extreme events by providing advanced warning for better preparedness.
The experimental tool is available at the following link: http://wxvu.net/spc/cfs_scp/ Access the paper here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00136.1