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National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Prediction System: Phase-1 NMME Implementation Plan

The recent US National Academies “Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability” (NRC 20101) was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a US NMME operational predictive capability. Indeed, the national effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of the emerging National Climate Service. The challenge is to meet this national need without diluting existing model development activities at the major centers and ensure that the forecast products continue to improve and be of societal value. 

There is little doubt that US participation in EUROSIP is beneficial to both the US and European forecasting communities and users of the forecasts. However, as a US National Climate Service emerges and as the possible National Center for Predictions and Projections (NCPP) develops, the need for a NMME system becomes paramount for supporting continued research on MME based prediction that can transition to operations. For example, a NMME system facilitates modifications (e.g., extending the forecast to longer time-scales) to the forecast strategy, allows for better coordination of the forecast runs compared to EUROSIP (e.g., hindcast period, forecast scheduling etc.) and allows free exchange of data beyond what is supported by EUROSIP. Also, by testing various national models on weather and seasonal time-scales, the NMME system will accelerate the feedback and interaction between US ISI prediction research, US model development and the decision science that the forecast products support. For instance, the prediction systems can potentially be used to evaluate and design longterm climate observing systems, because US scientists will have open access to the prediction systems (i.e. data, data assimilation and forecast models). Our national interests require that we (1) run these ISI prediction systems operationally in the US, (2) retain the flexibility to modify the prediction systems and how they are used based on emerging national needs, and (3) ensure that there is a robust communication and collaboration network open among operational ISI forecasting, research and model development.

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