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Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) logo

Realtime Monitoring and Forecast Support for DYNAMO

SocioΓÇÉeconomic benefits from skillful prediction of the MaddenΓÇÉJulian Oscillation (MJO) cannot be overemphasized and are well documented. Understanding the atmosphere – ocean processes behind the MJO, however, still remains a large scientific challenge. DYNAMO is an observational campaign that will address atmospheric and oceanic processes relevant to the genesis and growth of the MJO in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Observations are planned for aircraft, research vessels, buoys and radars.

This project focuses on three major tasks:
(i) Investigat the quality of past NCEP GFS and CFS forecasts, both deterministic and probabilistic, over the DYNAMO area as well as the quality of forecasts from the newly implemented GFS T574L64 during the period of October 2010 to March 2011.
(ii) Develop and/or modify protocols for the transmission of both oceanographic and atmospheric data to the GTS, allow these data through quality control procedures, and finally ingestthem into NCEP data assimilation schemes in realΓÇÉtime as a crucial component of the DYNAMO field campaign.
(iii) Provide operational atmospheric and oceanic monitoring and forecast data to support (i) and (ii) above. For example, this will include realΓÇÉtime information for planning intensive observing periods, including aircraft missions and downtime for flight crews, tied to spells of enhanced or suppressed organized convective activity that are crucial to the success of DYNAMO. The oceanographic component of the campaign also requires guidance on which depths the different instruments should be deployed with a lead time of one to two weeks. NCEP has a rich history of operational support for field campaigns (NAME, AMMA, VOCALS, TPARC). We will establish an operational website that will provide the necessary information for the decision making process during the DYNAMO campaign.

Since much of this work is to be done before and during the campaign, the work and necessary resources are “frontΓÇÉloaded” in this proposal as indicated in the budget justification.

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