NOAA model shows significant forecast skill 3-4 weeks in advance
This study represents a potentially significant step forward towards bridging the weather to climate prediction gap, which is recognized as a national and international priority.
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Ocean eddies and the atmosphere regulate western boundary currents, study says
CPO-funded research analyzing the implications of ocean mesoscale eddies and the atmosphere for western boundary currents was published in Nature.
Wintertime Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic Ocean Circulation Variability
Research supported by CPO’s Climate Variability and Predictability program (CVP) and published in the Journal of Climate tests the wintertime atmospheric response to North Atlantic Ocean circulation variability in CCSM4.
Can ENSO forecasts help predict severe thunderstorm activity?
A potentially high-impact study sponsored by NOAA CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program titled “Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States” was published online in Nature Geoscience on March 19.
Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) now complete
All 24 papers included in a topical collection on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) have now been published in the international journal Climate Dynamics.
CPO’s MAPP to co-host upcoming exploratory workshop on sub-seasonal forecasting based on NMME
The OAR/CPO Modeling, Analysis, and Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, together with the National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NWS/NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), will hold a workshop to explore advancing sub-seasonal forecasting as a follow-on to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a state-of-the-art prediction system.
New NOAA research to improve prediction systems
NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program awarded $1.8 million to support 10 new multi-year projects to help improve NOAA’s climate predictions from two weeks to a year in advance, including extreme conditions. These projects will contribute to the NOAA Climate Test Bed, aimed at accelerating research-based advances in climate prediction and transitioning new tools and techniques to NOAA’s operational services. MAPP is a part of the Climate Program Office, situated within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.
Researchers offer new insights into predicting future droughts in California
This NOAA Drought Task Force/NIDIS report details the results of an extensive multi-research-group analysis of the causes and predictability of the drought. The report finds that the exceedingly warm and dry conditions that caused the drought were due to a high pressure ridge off the west coast of the United States influenced heavily by anomalous sea surface temperatures. These influences are attributed to natural variability.
Topical collection of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) papers
A topical collection of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) papers was co-organized by NOAA’s Climate Program Office and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and is now available for viewing.
CarbonTracker-CH4: An assimilation system for estimating emissions of atmospheric methane
CarbonTracker methane, an off-shoot of NOAA’s highly successful CarbonTracker, which was partially funded by CPO’s AC4 program, has earned peer-reviewed status with a recent paper in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.