Advancing scientific understanding of climate, improving society’s ability to plan and respond
Advancing scientific understanding of climate, improving society’s ability to plan and respond
The extended nonlinear recharge oscillator (XRO) model integrates core ENSO dynamics with other climate modes to offer improved ENSO forecasts up to 18 months in advance.
New model enhances El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting Read More »
This study represents a potentially significant step forward towards bridging the weather to climate prediction gap, which is recognized as a national and international priority.
NOAA model shows significant forecast skill 3-4 weeks in advance Read More »
CPO-funded research analyzing the implications of ocean mesoscale eddies and the atmosphere for western boundary currents was published in Nature.
Ocean eddies and the atmosphere regulate western boundary currents, study says Read More »
Research supported by CPO’s Climate Variability and Predictability program (CVP) and published in the Journal of Climate tests the wintertime atmospheric response to North Atlantic Ocean circulation variability in CCSM4.
Wintertime Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic Ocean Circulation Variability Read More »
A potentially high-impact study sponsored by NOAA CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program titled “Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States” was published online in Nature Geoscience on March 19.
Can ENSO forecasts help predict severe thunderstorm activity? Read More »
All 24 papers included in a topical collection on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) have now been published in the international journal Climate Dynamics.
Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) now complete Read More »
The OAR/CPO Modeling, Analysis, and Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, together with the National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NWS/NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), will hold a workshop to explore advancing sub-seasonal forecasting as a follow-on to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a state-of-the-art prediction system.
NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program awarded $1.8 million to support 10 new multi-year projects to help improve NOAA’s climate predictions from two weeks to a year in advance, including extreme conditions. These projects will contribute to the NOAA Climate Test Bed, aimed at accelerating research-based advances in climate prediction and transitioning new tools and techniques to NOAA’s operational services. MAPP is a part of the Climate Program Office, situated within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.
New NOAA research to improve prediction systems Read More »
This NOAA Drought Task Force/NIDIS report details the results of an extensive multi-research-group analysis of the causes and predictability of the drought. The report finds that the exceedingly warm and dry conditions that caused the drought were due to a high pressure ridge off the west coast of the United States influenced heavily by anomalous sea surface temperatures. These influences are attributed to natural variability.
Researchers offer new insights into predicting future droughts in California Read More »
A topical collection of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) papers was co-organized by NOAA’s Climate Program Office and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and is now available for viewing.
Topical collection of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) papers Read More »