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In many parts of North America, a fluctuating air-pressure pattern that enhances or blocks the storm-steering jet stream, called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), explains more variability in the weather than a primary influencer called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the AO’s prediction skill has been known to be limited, until now.

Two new NOAA-funded studies from scientists at The University of Texas at Austin have significantly improved scientists’ ability to predict the strength and duration of droughts caused by La Niña.

The first volume of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report, known as the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), was released Friday, November 3rd, 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program after years of writing and reviewing by experts from 13 federal agencies and the broader research community.

Some of the world’s most intense thunderstorms, associated with destructive impacts like high winds, large hail, and flash floods, occur in the tropical and subtropical regions, including parts of the southern U.S. However, scientists have been uncertain about how such storms will respond in the context of warming temperatures.

Predicting the weather 3 to 4 weeks from now is extremely challenging, yet many critical decisions affecting communities and economies must be made at this lead time. However, model forecasts available for the first time this week could help NOAA’s operational Climate Prediction Center significantly improve its week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S.