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ESSM News

NOAA and partners release database for research to bridge weather to climate forecast gap

Two new datasets, funded in part by NOAA Research’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, now provide easy public access to 60 terabytes of climate forecasts containing predictions of rainfall, temperature, winds and other variables at the subseasonal level (two weeks to two months ahead).

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Scientists say weak and wobbly polar vortex to blame for cold extremes

New research, funded by CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program, shows that the polar vortex has shifted towards more frequent weak states and fewer strong states over the past few decades, with subsequent cold extremes seen during Eurasian winters. 

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NOAA Research leads to a new milestone in improving operational predictions from weeks to seasons

As an important milestone for NOAA’s ongoing efforts, researchers from universities, NOAA OAR research laboratories and the National Weather Service (NWS) recently met to discuss efforts to improve S2S predictions.

NOAA Research leads to a new milestone in improving operational predictions from weeks to seasons Read More »

State-of-the-art seasonal prediction research published in new special collection

A special issue on the interagency North American Multi-model Ensemble, a seasonal prediction system combining forecasts from the leading North American climate models, is now available. The papers in this special issue document a variety of different research uses of the NMME system database, which includes a 30-year set of hindcasts as well as real-time forecasts.  

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Scientists meet to improve predictions from weeks to seasons

Bridging the gap between short-term weather and long-term climate predictions has remained challenging for scientists, but public demand and promising research has focused NOAA’s attention on this prediction problem. In an effort to further progress, researchers from universities, NOAA and other labs and centers will meet to highlight recent efforts to develop skillful predictions for the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. 

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Newly released model forecasts could help advance NOAA’s week 3-4 outlooks

Predicting the weather 3 to 4 weeks from now is extremely challenging, yet many critical decisions affecting communities and economies must be made at this lead time. However, model forecasts available for the first time this week could help NOAA’s operational Climate Prediction Center significantly improve its week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. 

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