Advancing scientific understanding of climate, improving society’s ability to plan and respond
Advancing scientific understanding of climate, improving society’s ability to plan and respond
Researchers have for years been working to tackle the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction problem to improve forecasts. The Subseasonal Experiment, SubX, is an interagency research-to-operations project designed to help tackle this problem. The results of the project were recently published in BAMS.
A new review paper describes how MAPP-funded and organized work has contributed to recent progress in understanding tropical cyclones.
Since 2016, the Subseaonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Task Force has been focusing efforts on bridging the skill gap between weather and seasonal prediction lead times. Publication of this special collection represents an important milestone for the group.
An EOS project update on the MAPP S2S Prediction Task Force has been published. A task force of researchers set out to bridge the gap between the 2-week weather forecast and long-term climate predictions; their findings could help in forecasting the likelihood of extreme events.
A new study shows that though seasonal forecasts failed to predict the unusual California preciptation during the winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17, forecasts issued a month ahead — within the subseasonal timescale and much further ahead than a normal weather forecast — could have accurately predicted the abnormal winter rain.
Three leaders from the weather and climate research communities share their perspective on how best to address the subseasonal to seasonal prediction challenge in a new open-access paper in Nature Partner Journals – Climate and Atmospheric Science. The authors include Annarita Mariotti, Director of the NOAA MAPP Program, as well as Paolo Ruti and Michel Rixen, who coordinate research for the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and World Climate Research Program (WCRP), respectively.
A new study in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science describes a breakthrough in accurately predicting atmospheric river behavior several weeks ahead.
A new study says that teleconnections with certain phases of a recurring tropical rainfall pattern could extend predictions up to 20-25 days in advance. The authors’ findings provide guidance on which tropical conditions might lead to improved forecasts beyond our current capability – and more time to prepare for extreme events.
Two new datasets, funded in part by NOAA Research’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program, now provide easy public access to 60 terabytes of climate forecasts containing predictions of rainfall, temperature, winds and other variables at the subseasonal level (two weeks to two months ahead).
As an important milestone for NOAA’s ongoing efforts, researchers from universities, NOAA OAR research laboratories and the National Weather Service (NWS) recently met to discuss efforts to improve S2S predictions.