Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

How Land-Atmosphere Interactions Magnified the Drought and Heatwave over Northern Europe during Summer 2018

During the summer of 2018, Northern Europe experienced a devastating heatwave and drought; with unprecedented forest fires in Sweden, excessive heat in Germany, and water restrictions in England, these events had far-reaching economic and ecological impacts.

How Land-Atmosphere Interactions Magnified the Drought and Heatwave over Northern Europe during Summer 2018 Read More »

ESSM supports effort to address climate projection uncertainties through large ensembles

Using climate projections to assess climate change risks remains challenging, in part due to the large associated uncertainties, such as those for extreme events.

ESSM supports effort to address climate projection uncertainties through large ensembles Read More »

Is There a Connection Between MJO and Tornadoes in the United States?

With the United States experiencing the largest number of annual tornado events of any country, it’s critical for atmospheric studies to continue to enhance tornado outlooks and projections for our country. New research accepted for publication, funded by the MAPP Program, shows that different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation’s (MJO) — an eastward moving tropical rainfall pattern — global trek can produce more or less favorable conditions for U.S. tornado activity.

Is There a Connection Between MJO and Tornadoes in the United States? Read More »

The South Asian Summer Monsoon: What Our Climate Projections Tell Us

A paper just published in Science Advances, funded by the MAPP Program, identified a key climate pattern responsible, in part, for large uncertainties in projections of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM). The SASM is the strongest component of the global monsoon system and contributes about 80% of South Asia’s annual rainfall and provides the water supply for more than a billion people.

The South Asian Summer Monsoon: What Our Climate Projections Tell Us Read More »

A shift in ENSO is causing worse prediction skill

Despite major progress in monitoring and understanding the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an alternating climate pattern of abnormally warm and cool ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific, scientists’ ability to predict it has not shown steady improvement over the past few decades. Helping to solve this mystery, a new review article funded by the MAPP Program found that a shift in ENSO properties around 1999/2000 may account for the lower prediction skill.

A shift in ENSO is causing worse prediction skill Read More »

Scroll to Top