US CLIVAR holds workshop on advancing scientific understanding of multi-year predictability
During the last week of March, US CLIVAR held a hybrid workshop on multi-year climate predictions.
predictions
Improving Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tropical cyclones are one of the biggest natural threats to society, causing substantial economic damage and loss of life annually. Accurate and reliable seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for disaster preparedness, but remain challenging for climate scientists. In a new MAPP-supported study, Manganello et al.
indicates that the potential for high-resolution coupled (atmosphere-ocean) modeling to improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity may be greater than previously believed.
Novel data science approaches could drive advances in seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions of precipitation
Predictions at the seasonal to sub-seasonal scale are important for planning and decision-making in a variety of disciplines, and improving understanding and model skill at this timescale is a key research priority. An as yet underexplored approach to sub-seasonal prediction using data science and graph theory methods that are increasingly common to other fields outside of meteorology and climate science shows potential to improve predictions at this challenging timescale.
Science needs for sea level adaptation planning
A new paper by Lindeman et. al—supported by the Climate Program Office—performed a synthesis of science needs from coastal communities by reporting on workshops held in Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts. The paper, “Science Needs for Sea-Level Adaptation Planning: Comparisons among Three U.S. Atlantic Coastal Regions,” was published online in the journal of Coastal Management on October 14, 2015.
Global warming’s new predictors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Since the end of the 19th century, Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) predictions have improved. However, prediction skill of the operational forecasts from 1989-2012 is quite low.
MAPP Webinar Series: Arctic Modeling: Improving Models and Predictions in the Arctic
The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program hosted a webinar on the topic of Arctic Modeling: Improving Models and Predictions in the Arctic on Tuesday, January 13, 2015. The announcement is provided below; you are invited to remotely join the session.
MAPP Climate Prediction Task Force hosts Virtual Workshop on Bias Corrections in Subseasonal to Interannual Predictions
CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program hosted a virtual workshop on Bias Corrections in Subseasonal to Interannual Predictions from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, 2014.
MAPP Webinar Series: Tropical Cyclones: Predictions and Projections
The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program hosted a webinar on the topic of Tropical Cyclones: Predictions and Projections on Tuesday, September 9, 2014. The announcement is provided below; you are invited to remotely join the session.
MAPP Webinar Series: Understanding Climate Predictability and Advancing Predictions
The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program will host a webinar on the topic of climate predictability and predictions on Tuesday, March 18. During this webinar, speakers will discuss the National Multi Model Ensemble, other subseasonal to seasonal prediction efforts, and predictability of Asian Summer monsoon precipitation. This work is relevant to ongoing activities of the NOAA Climate Prediction Task Force, which will also be discussed.