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Improving Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical cyclones are one of the biggest natural threats to society, causing substantial economic damage and loss of life annually. Accurate and reliable seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for disaster preparedness, but remain challenging for climate scientists. In a new MAPP-supported study, Manganello et al.
indicates that the potential for high-resolution coupled (atmosphere-ocean) modeling to improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity may be greater than previously believed.

Novel data science approaches could drive advances in seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions of precipitation

Predictions at the seasonal to sub-seasonal scale are important for planning and decision-making in a variety of disciplines, and improving understanding and model skill at this timescale is a key research priority. An as yet underexplored approach to sub-seasonal prediction using data science and graph theory methods that are increasingly common to other fields outside of meteorology and climate science shows potential to improve predictions at this challenging timescale.

Science needs for sea level adaptation planning

A new paper by Lindeman et. al—supported by the Climate Program Office—performed a synthesis of science needs from coastal communities by reporting on workshops held in Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts. The paper, “Science Needs for Sea-Level Adaptation Planning: Comparisons among Three U.S. Atlantic Coastal Regions,” was published online in the journal of Coastal Management on October 14, 2015.

MAPP Webinar Series: Understanding Climate Predictability and Advancing Predictions

The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections (MAPP) program will host a webinar on the topic of climate predictability and predictions on Tuesday, March 18. During this webinar, speakers will discuss the National Multi Model Ensemble, other subseasonal to seasonal prediction efforts, and predictability of Asian Summer monsoon precipitation. This work is relevant to ongoing activities of the NOAA Climate Prediction Task Force, which will also be discussed.

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