Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP)

Occurring frequently over the Southern Plains, droughts are the second most costly U.S. weather and climate disaster. Many efforts have been made to advance drought monitoring, but modeling water variability during drought remains a challenge as numerous physical processes control soil moisture variability.

Marine heatwaves are increasing, both in the amount of time they last and in their intensity. Because of their potential impacts on fisheries and other marine goods and services, scientists are working to understand and develop practical marine heatwave predictions.

Cloud feedback refers to the response of clouds to surface temperature change. A positive cloud feedback would amplify greenhouse gas-induced warming and have a stronger cooling effect from aerosol‐cloud interactions. Uncertainties in predicting cloud feedbacks are the largest cause of spread in model predictions of future global warming.

New research looks to expand severe weather outlooks beyond the synoptic weather time scale toward subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales.